Qatar 2023 – Asian Cup Review

Posted on March 12, 2024 by Admin

12 March 2024

The 2023 Asian Cup was not the most exciting ever. Hosted by Qatar between 2 January and 10 February 2024, it was originally meant to be hosted by China in 2023. Due to China’s strict COVID-19 policies, on 14 May 2022 the Asian Football Confederation decided China would not host the event, and the AFC searched for a new host. Qatar, who were current Asian Cup champions, were eventually selected as hosts.

While the late change in schedule had minor impact overall in a football sense, and most people would not even know of the change until noticing the 2023 Asian Cup was played in 2024, it did mean that two editions in a row of the tournament were held in the Persian Gulf, with the United Arab Emirates hosting in 2019. The inconvenience for Australian viewers was, due to the time zone, many matches were on well past midnight. While Australia’s group games were scheduled as the first game of the day (late evening Australian time), as was their first knockout game, the quarter final was late, as were both semi finals and the final. Access was also an issue. Channel 10 only showed Australia’s games, and only the knockout games that lay in Australia’s path (whether Australia reached them or not). The remaining games were consigned to their subscription service.

For Australia, the 2023 Asian Cup was mixed bag of results. While individual games produced good results, the tournament ended in disappointment. In the first two games, the Socceroos just did enough to overcome the stubborn defences of India (2-0) and Syria (1-0). In the final group game, a late goal by Uzbekistan saw a 1-1 draw and Australia losing a chance of setting a new Australian record for most consecutive matches in which they did not concede a goal. Still, it’s difficult to pick at the team and coach Graham Arnold for winning the group comfortably, and setting themselves up for a relatively easy run though the knockout phase.

In the round of 16, Australia kept composed against an energetic Indonesia and scored goals when needed. The 4-0 demolition set up an appetising quarter final against South Korea. It’s here where Australia, ironically, had their best game of the tournament. Disciplined and composed for much of the game against a clearly superior Korean team that dominated possession, Australia went ahead just before half time thanks to a classy move that saw eventually Craig Goodwin volley the ball home.

In the second half, Australia missed three open chances, including a header on an open goal by Mitchell Duke, to extend their lead to two goals. Just when it looked like Australia would win anyway, disaster struck. Four minutes into additional time, Lewis Miller conceded a sloppy and completely unnecessary penalty, which Hwang Hee-chan converted. Now into extra time, the same player conceded a foul just outside the box, to which Son Heung-min scored from a direct free kick on 104 minutes. Game over.

Definitely a disappointing exit for Australia, and the second tournament straight they were eliminated at the quarter final stage. A semi final spot was probably the pass mark for most viewers, and had Australia beaten Korea, Jordan, who qualified from the group phase as one of the third best teams, would have awaited in the semi final. Jordan went on to upset the Koreans 2-0 in the semi final, before losing 3-1 to Qatar in the final, where all of Qatar’s goals were penalties. The penalties all looked all legitimate anyway, so no accusations of anything there, only that it would have been nice to see one or two goals scored directly from the field.

The next Asian Cup will return to its usual 4-year cycle, so is only 3 years away. It’s scheduled for January 2027 with Saudi Arabia the hosts. So, again, not a great time zone for Australians or any country in east Asia. Let’s at least hope for some better TV coverage.

Australia – Results

Group Stage

Australia 2 (Jackson Irvine 50′, Jordan Bos 73′)
India 0

Syria 0
Australia 1 (Jackson Irvine 59′)

Australia 1 (Martin Boyle 45+1′ PK)
Uzbekistan 1 (Azizbek Turgunboev 78′)

Round of 16

Australia 4 (Elkan Baggott 12′ OG, Martin Boyle 45′, Craig Goodwin 89′, Harry Souttar 90+1)
Indonesia 0

Quarter Final

Australia 1 (Craig Goodwin 42′)
South Korea 2 AET (Hwang Hee-chan 90+6′ PK, Son Heung-min 104′)

United Arab Emirates 2019 – Asian Cup Review

Qatar 2022 – World Cup Review

Posted on December 29, 2022 by Admin

29 December 2022

Australia’s best ever World Cup performance, a worthy winner in Argentina, a high quality and efficiently run tournament, and Lionel Messi still does not compare to Diego Maradona. That was the story of 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

For the unheralded Socceroos, with a team of mostly domestic players and no big names, the portend of bigger things to come began early with a shock goal by Craig Goodwin on 9 minutes against the previous world champions, France. It was a quality goal too, after Mathew Leckie, on the right flank, ran onto a long pass from defender Harry Souttar, turned his defender, and crossed it beautifully for Goodwin to score. While this jolted France into action and they eventually ran out 4-1 winners – notably due to Kylian Mbappe unable to be controlled – it never stopped the aspirations of this Australian team.

Craig Goodwin scores for Australia vs France at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - Review — *Craig Goodwin scores for Australia vs France at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar*

With coach Graham Arnold instilling an intense belief and a strong work ethic into the team, and fashioning a disciplined, well structured defensive unit, this was the springboard to winning their next two games, holding their opponents goalless for the first time since 1974, and qualifying for the knockout stage for only the second time ever. It was a glorious move that started from defence that saw Mitch Duke head home on 23 minutes to beat Tunisia 1-0, and then Leckie’s solo break on the hour against Denmark saw another 1-0 win and guaranteed passage to the next stage. This goal and victory proved critical, as Australia could easily have relied on a draw in expectation France would beat Tunisia in the other game. Of course, France rested many players, and lost 1-0.

Group D Table - 2022 FIFA World Cup - Qatar - Review — *Group D Table – 2022 FIFA World Cup – Qatar*

This qualification to the knockout stage automatically made the 2022 team Australia’s most successful World Cup team ever, and they still weren’t done. Facing eventual champions, Argentina, they had them under control for the first half and even dominated large portions of play at times, with one passage consisting of about 40 passes and almost resulting in a juicy chance on goal. Unfortunately, their discipline finally broke, when Aziz Behich gave away a silly free kick in a dangerous area near the side line, and while the free kick was initially defended, Lionel Messi was able to prod it into the net after some nice interplay on the next phase of play.

That first Argentine goal was on 35 minutes, and then 12 minutes into the second half was a moment of madness when goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, upon receiving a back-pass, tried to dribble past an Argentine player, only to be dispossessed and gift Argentina their second goal. While Ryan was clearly at fault, questions must be asked why defenders play these short, dangerous back-passes to the goalie, only for it to be usually booted upfield, when they could do it better themselves, and avoid any risk in the process. Seemingly down and out, Australia scored on 77 minutes when a Goodwin shot was deflected into the net by Enzo Fernandez.

Amazingly, Australia had two golden opportunities to equalise, when Behich made a breathtaking run into the box, only for his shot to be blocked. He really should have layed off the ball to a player waiting in the box. In the dying seconds, Garang Kuol found himself on the end of the cross, beautifully trapped the ball and spun around, and had his shot narrowly saved. It would have been fitting for this team to push the game into extra time. They deserved it. It’s not just that the results were far beyond expectations, so was their performance. They were defensively tough, scored a goal in every game, and kept two teams scoreless. Goals also came from open play, not the penalty spot as were both goals in 2018. In fact, unlike then, Australia were never involved in a Video Assistant Referee (VAR) penalty decision. The only area in which Australia disappointed was set pieces, primarily from Aaron Mooy. So many were over-hit or simply wasted.

As for coach Graham Arnold, like his style or hate it, results count. Just prior to the World Cup, when Football Australia ran a competition for fans to name their Socceroos Team of the Century, I named Arnold as coach of my team. He earned it simply from the tough qualification process he had to endure, so a competent display at the World Cup would be enough to compare favourably to his predecessors. He did far more than that.

Qatar 2022

For all the controversy about such a nation with poor human rights records hosting the World Cup, the threatened protests and moralising by many countries, including Australia, just prior to the tournament, was appalling. Qatar’s issues were known well in advance, and should have been expressed vociferously before they were announced as host. It’s certainly rich to wait all these years, on the precipice of the tournament starting, to pompously get all virtuous. It was similar with the 2008 Beijing Olympics when Tibet suddenly became an issue during the torch relay. The reality is, if such rights are so important to an individual or a team, don’t attend at all. Credit to FIFA for stamping out any chance of on-field protests by sanctimonious teams and players.

The final between Argentina and France, to finish 3-3, and then go to penalties, was as good and dramatic as you could hope, with France having two of the best chances late to steal it. Overall, Argentina were the better team, and best of the tournament, and finally got their third World Cup. No, this win does not immediately elevate Lionel Messi to legend status alongside Diego Maradona. Maradona won the World Cup almost single-handedly for Argentina in 1986, whereas Messi was merely an excellent, occasionally exceptional, player. He only really had one moment of magic for the tournament, and that was setting up the third goal in the semi final against Croatia. He’s at the second level of best ever players. Pele and Maradona sit at the top.

Qatar 2022 was a thoroughly entertaining and engaging tournament. Having four matches a day to reduce the closure period for domestic leagues, certainly added a nice, breezy flow to it. The groups developed evenly, and at pace, and we were onto the knockout phase before we knew it. In contrast, with the traditional three matches a day of previous tournaments, the group stage can seem never ending. Games themselves were good, with very few dull draws, and there were some crazy upsets, notably Saudi Arabia beating Argentina in their first group game. The refereeing was brilliant. Absolutely no concerns, and they have honed the use of VAR. Clear rules over handball certainly help, as is adding accurately all the stoppage time to prevent time wasting. Although, when it’s 8 and 10 minutes of additional time, FIFA might want to considering reducing halves from 45 minutes to 40.

It was a great tournament for Asia too. Along with Australia advancing to the knockout stage, so did Japan and Korea. The hosts, Qatar, were a disappointment when losing all three games, especially after all the investment and being Asian Cup champions. Japan were players in two of the most memorable games. Firstly, beating Germany 2-1 in their first group game, and then Spain 2-1 in their final group game. Unfortunately they fell apart during the penalty shootout in the first knockout game against Croatia, after the match finished 1-1 after extra time. Arguably the most memorable game was Korea stunning Portugal, 2-1, in their final group game. They scored the winner in the 91st minute, then waited for the result of Ghana vs Uruguay to determine if they would progress. Everyone huddled on the pitch looking at phones for several minutes was a sight to see, and then came the jubilation. Of course, let’s not forget about Morocco becoming the first team from Africa to reach the semi finals of a World Cup. A great achievement, eventually losing to France, 2-0.

In comparison to other World Cups, Qatar 2022 is on the second level. Russia 2018 remains my favourite, with USA 1994 and Brazil 2014 at the next level, and mostly let down by some weak games in the knockout stages, including the finals themselves. Germany 2006 was great simply due to Australia’s return after 32 years and then performing well. Qatar delivered a great final and semi finals, had Australia’s best every result, while being patchy elsewhere. The images broadcast were superb, especially the wire camera that could put you on the field, and the supporting graphics like for offside. Holding the tournament in winter, despite all the whinging at the time, was clearly no issue. The default commentary feed from the host was excellent, which made SBS’s continued use of the dreary Martin Tyler for certain games, like the final, extra puzzling. He waffles on inanely and is a living barometer of the state of the game. If it’s dull, he reflects it, draining all energy from the broadcast. He only pipes up when there’s a hint of action, which was at least beneficial for the times I would drift asleep.

When Qatar bid for the World Cup, their motto was “Expect Amazing”. While it didn’t quite reach such heights, we did at least get “Excellent”. They can be proud, and now we look forward to 2026, with the USA jointly hosting the World Cup with Canada and Mexico, and it will be the first World Cup to feature 48 teams. Finally, I might actually get to one.

That was Qatar 2022 – The 22nd World Championship of Football

My Socceroos Team Of The Century

Russia 2018 – World Cup Retrospective: The Final, VAR, Australia & Ange Postecoglou

Melbourne Cup 2022 – Preview and Review

Posted on October 31, 2022 by Admin

31 October 2022

A somewhat strange Melbourne Cup for 2022 in that the number of international horses are down on previous years (before COVID-19), meaning the number of local horses making up the field has increased. That’s manifested into a top echelon of hopes, and then the field really tails off. Adding further into consideration is the likely soft, if not heavy, track that will immediately boost or hurt the chances of several horses.

To keep it simple, I look at form, horses that will strongly run the 3200m distance and horses with enough class or are low enough in the weights to compensate. For the wet weather leading into this year’s race, obviously those that can handle soft or heavy conditions. Some won’t at all, while some will excel in it. There’s a couple of general queries to consider every year, namely mares (female horses) often struggle (last year was an exception with Verry Elleegant and there was the phenomenal Makybe Diva winning 2003, 2004 and 2005), top weights struggle and the Caulfield Cup is nowadays often a weak guide. This year the weights are quite compressed with Gold Trip only on 57.5kg and most of best chances at least 55kg.

Melbourne Cup 2022 Field - Preview and Review — *Melbourne Cup 2022 Field*

MY TOP 3

1 Gold Trip ($17)

Second in the Caulfield Cup and strong late in the Cox Plate. The compressed weight scale this year means being top weight is not the usual burden. A quality horse and he loves it wet.

6 Without A Fight ($10)

An international with form around the short priced favourite, Deauville Legend. Never raced on heavy; won two and placed third twice from 5 races on soft. The Flemington track drains well and there hasn’t been too much rain about. Mostly light showers. It’s unlikely to become a bog.

24 Realm Of Flowers ($10)

Third in recent two runs, super light weight, and loves the wet. There’s one or two light weight horses that run on, often in the placings, each year, and she looks the best of that group.

OTHER CHANCES

8 Deauville Legend ($3.60 fav)

The short priced international and it’s that price that mostly steers me clear. There’s also the fact he’s only raced 7 times in his career and none were on soft tracks. You take his class and recent form (1-2-1-2-1) on complete trust. Compared to recent European 3yo horses that won the race, he’s well up in the weights with 55kg. Cross Counter in 2018 with 51kg and Rekindling in 2017 with 51.5kg. These horses are actually three and a half on southern hemisphere time, and so the weight scale has been adjusted to compensate.

4 Montefelia ($11)

Quality mare and fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Query about the distance.

3 Knights Order ($15)

Won this year’s Sydney Cup, so can run the distance, and loves it wet. Solid in the Caulfield Cup. Only 19th last year in the Melbourne Cup.

12 Hoo Ya Mal ($15)

Has form around the favourite, with his own blemish being 8th last start on a sticky track. Without that run, probably the clear second favourite.

19 Smokin’ Romans ($16)

Hot favourite that flopped in the 2400m Caulfied Cup. Doubt over the 3200m distance of the Melbourne Cup.

18 Lunar Flare ($21)

Light weight and wet conditions give her a solid chance, at least for a placing.

10 Vow And Declare ($27)

Won in 2019 and helped me land the trifecta then. Hasn’t won since, still not going as well, and the wet won’t suit him.

9 Stockman ($31)

Loves it wet.

23 Interpretation ($46)

An international that ran poorly in the Geelong Cup. Light weight the key here.

13 Serpentine ($81)

I love the name and ran second in a weak Archer Stakes (formerly the Hotham Stakes) on Saturday.

BETTING

I’ll mostly bet on Gold Trip and pot around with a few others, notably Lunar Flare. I’ll do a 5-horse boxed trifecta of Gold Trip, Without A Fight, Realm Of Flowers, Deauville Legend and probably Knights Order. A second trifecta will be Gold Trip, Without A Fight and Deauville Legend first or second, with a whole bunch of others in third.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!

REVIEW

Nice to finally pick the Melbourne Cup winner after Gold Trip proved too classy to win ahead of Emissary and High Emocean. The favourite, Deauville Legend, finished fourth ahead of Realm Of Flowers in fifth. It was the first time I picked the winner outright since Dunaden in 2011 and Americain in 2010, while in 2019 Vow And Declare was my third pick and helped me land the trifecta. With Gold Trip paying $23 for the win, it was a juicy collect of $920 for my $40 bet on Sportsbet.

My trifecta bets were another case of just missing out, with my three key hopes finishing first, fourth and fifth. If either Deauville Legend or Realm Of Flowers finished second, with Emissary in third, I would have landed that as I had Emissary in my wide trifecta for third place. Second and third place were minor outsiders at $26 and $41 chances, and if they had not performed so well, I would have landed the 5-horse box trifecta with Gold Trip, Deauville Legend and Realm Of Flowers.

What a race!

GOLD TRIP wins the 2022 Lexus Melbourne Cup 🏆
@cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/4qJa2gZbpi
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 1, 2022

Gold Trip showed that class, form in the wet, and experience, proved the difference. The couple of negatives against him weren’t actually in play when looking at the whole picture. While you must remain skeptical of Caulfield Cup form finished second) these days, Gold Trip ran well in the much classier Cox Plate a week later to validate his form. Being top weight didn’t matter as it normally would as he carried only 57.5kg and his key rivals were only 2-3kg off him. This false belief that top weight was a critical issue in 2022 erased Gold Trip from the minds of nearly all experts. Of the ten or so I tracked, only one even had him top three, with Grace Ramage of Racing.com slotting him in for third and generally liked his chances. She had Deauville Legend first and Montefilia second.

Emissary and High Emocean won the Geelong and Bendigo Cups, respectively, this year, which are typically appalling guides to the Melbourne Cup. Almost certainly the wet conditions helped – both in them performing better and reducing the chance of many rivals.

Deauville Legend simply didn’t run it out strongly enough, and the ground likely didn’t suit. He loomed to win in the straight, before Gold Trip just blasted past him. Similar situation with Without A Fight, who finished the race as his name would suggest.

Realm Of Flowers tracked with Gold Trip into the straight and couldn’t keep up. She never had the class; it was only the ultra light weight that elevated her chances.

Mares like Montefilia (16th) and Duais (18th) reinforced the fact that mares rarely do well unless they are obvious staying mares like High Emocean. Add to that the wet track and a doubt over the distance, and their results weren’t a surprise.

As for the rest, they weren’t good enough (like Knights Order), couldn’t run the distance or couldn’t handle the wet. In that sense, it was quite easy to knock out the chances of many. The uncertainty was which ones would surprise, and it actually proved to be those down in the weights that could handle the distance and the soft ground, and had recent Cup form, even if they were inferior races, because their light weights would compensate.

With the win this year, I quit! Since losing my mother in 2019, the Melbourne Cup just hasn’t been the same. It was a common interest with her since I was little, as far back as 1977, and without her, its relevance and interest has faded. She always liked “Gold” in the name of a race horse and it was this fact that ensured I stick with Gold Trip, despite a couple of little doubts I had. I was already thinking I’d quit regardless of the result this year, and with Gold Trip’s win, it’s the perfect timing. I won big in the year I lost my mother, and now again with Gold Trip. So thanks, Mumsey!

I will still watch the Melbourne Cup, and post my tips on Twitter. It’s just the betting that is over.

FINISHING ORDER

01 Gold Trip ($19.40 W, $5.80 P)
02 Emissary ($7.40 P)
03 High Emocean ($9 P)
04 Deauville Legend
05 Realm Of Flowers
06 Daqiansweet Junior
07 Smokin’ Romans
08 Stockman
09 Knights Order
10 Vow And Declare
11 Arapaho
12 Hoo Ya Mal
13 Without A Fight
14 Grand Promenade
15 Young Werther
16 Montefilia
17 Tralee Rose
18 Duais
19 Numerian
20 Serpentine
21 Camorra
Failed to finish – Interpretation
Scratchings – Lunar Flare, Point Nepean

Quinella: (1-17) $251.30
Exacta: (1-17) $460.40
Trifecta: (1-17-22) $16,494.40
First Four: (1-17-22) $102,785.00

Melbourne Cup 2021 – Preview and Review

Posted on November 2, 2021 by Admin

2 November 2021

It’s an unusual Melbourne Cup in modern times due to the low numbers of international horses in the field. Compared to the highs of 11 in recent years, there’s officially just two this year (Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission), while a couple of others were recently transferred to Australian trainers. In that sense, it’s an old school Melbourne Cup with plenty of locals making up the 24-horse field, many of whom are just making up the numbers. The positive is that there’s very few mystery international horses that can be hit and miss.

PREVIEW

I’m keeping it simple this year, looking for horses in form, are likely to run the distance and have a nice weight. In fairness, in this modern era, weights are compressed, so very few horses are weighted out of it and nearly all actually race below their weight-for-age weight. I’ll also remain skeptical of the international horses, especially if the Cup is their debut race in Australia. It should be a stamina test with Twilight Payment in the field, who led all the way last year to win.

Incentivise won the Caulfield Cup in impressive style and is currently on a 9-race winning streak from his 12-race career. He looks like he’ll get the distance as he’s really strong to, and past, the line in his recent races. While the Caulfield Cup stunk as a form reference for over a decade, it has began to return to its historically good reference. Forgetting that anyway, Incentivise’s win was a key form reference in itself and he’ll run as the shortest priced favourite since Phar Lap (1930).

Last year’s winner Twilight Payment goes up 2.5kg and is now 9 years old on the Australian calendar (8 on European). Only 4 horses have won the Cup two years running, and no 9yo has won it at all. He looks to be going as well as last year, he’ll love the warm day and firm track, and this is a weaker field. His main competition is only just behind him in the weights too.

Spanish Mission has quality form and likes it dry. The big knock is, as an international, he’s as likely to flop as he is excel. It’s a 50/50 scenario with these visitors, especially on warm days, and he’s had injury concerns too. Verry Elleegant didn’t quite see it out last year and carries more weight. The Chosen One finished fourth last year and has conditions to suit again this year. Ignore the Caulfield Cup run on a wet track. Possibly do so for Delphi too. Persan was fifth in last year’s Melbourne Cup, ran an excellent third in the Caulfield Cup, so looks to be plotting similarly this year.

If you like Pondus, you’re better off with Floating Artist, who beat him in the Moonee Valley Cup, has a lower weight and is is good recent form. Grand Promenade won The Bart Cummings (the same race as Almandin in 2016) and his recent form is similarly good. Tralee Rose is the Geelong Cup winner, which has been used as a preparation for international winners in 2010 and 2011, and has had little guide since. Being a mare is a concern (many don’t like the big fields) and she has flopped over the distance before. In good recent form otherwise. Great House won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday to guarantee his place and was solid in the Caulfield Cup, while Sir Lucan has the good profile of being a European 3yo, albeit without the form of recent successful horses in that category.

Of the outsiders, the main one to note is Johnny Get Angry. He’s trained by former Australian Rules premiership coach, Denis Pagan, and won the Victoria Derby last year. Has done nothing since, so it’s really only the football interest.

SELECTIONS

02 Incentivise
01 Twilight Payment
16 Grand Promenade
22 Floating Artist

No surprises here. I’m sticking to the hot favourite, Incentivise, and believe Twilight Payment is on the right path to repeat his 2020 performance. Whenever I look at horses at longer odds, the common thread is Grand Promenade has beaten them all. Similarly with Floating Artist, he’s beaten most of those in the same lead-up races to him. They’ve run in different races leading up to the Melbourne Cup, so I split them based on Grand Promenade looking like the stronger stayer. I worry about Spanish Mission so will throw it into a 5-horse boxed trifecta. I’ll do my favoured multi-trifecta (which scored in 2019) of Incentivise, Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission first or second, with about 10 horses in third.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!

REVIEW

It was a weird Melbourne Cup of 2021. A bit slow in that they didn’t go as hard as expected and Verry Elleegant unleashed a surprisingly devastating sprint to win easily by 4 lengths. She only ran on late last year for 7th, was up in weight and prefers a wet track. All racing experts I saw discarded her for others, and one couldn’t even find her a spot in a wide trifecta covering about 10 horses. That’s horse racing! It’s not a precise science and Verry Elleegant proved that and showed to never discount a champion horse. The Melbourne Cup was her 10th Group 1 win, which includes the 2020 Caulfield Cup. Her winning time of 3:17.43 was just over a second outside the race record 3:16:30 set in 1990, so it was a reasonably fast race, attributed to a long wind up in the second half and Verry Elleegant’s super sprint. The Chosen One in fifth was the only horse to make up any major ground from the back, albeit finishing over 10 lengths from the winner.

SHE IS AMAZING. ❤💙

VERRY ELLEEGANT WINS HER 10TH GROUP 1 IN THE LEXUS #MELBOURNECUP.@cwallerracing @FlemingtonVRC pic.twitter.com/L2p2W6EtNB
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 2, 2021

At $18 in the market, Verry Elleegant wasn’t an outsider anyway, and she led home a group of horses all well in the market. Except for perhaps the order of the top 6, especially with Verry Elleegant winning, it was a fairly predictable result. Indeed, remove the winner, and I would have landed the trifecta twice with Incentivise, Spanish Mission and Floating Artist. Even Verry Elleegant in third behind Incentivise and Spanish Mission would have meant a trifecta landed.

Incentivise anchored the hopes of many punters and ran a gallant race to almost deliver the fairytale win of a bush horse from Toowomba on a 9-race winning streak taking Australia’s biggest race. He sat just outside the leader the whole way, and it makes you think if he could have taken a sit behind a strong leader that he might have prevailed. Last year’s winner, Twilight Payment, who led all the way then, didn’t get a fast enough start from his inside draw and got buried in midfield. Even then, a tad disappointing to not run on and only finish 11th. Spanish Mission, the other international, was a hit in third place. He couldn’t sprint with Verry Elleegant and that was it. Floating Artist performed as hoped to finish fourth. He just couldn’t match the sprint of Verry Elleegant. No horse could. For the rest, it’s mostly as per the preview: either not good enough, not in form or couldn’t run the distance. Persan probably the only surprise, capitulating early from the lead to finish 20th.

FINISHING ORDER

1st – Verry Elleegant ($16.50 W, $4.50 P)
2nd – Incentivise ($2.00 P)
3rd – Spanish Mission ($3.00 P)
4th – Floating Artist
5th – The Chosen One
6th – Grand Promenade
7th – Delphi
8th – Selino
9th – Tralee Rose
10th – She’s Ideel
11th – Twilight Payment
12th – Miami Bound
13th – Great House
14th – Sir Lucan
15th – Explosive Jack
16th – Master of Wine
17th – Pondus
18th – Carif
19th – Knights Order
20th – Persan
21st – Port Guillaume
22nd – Johnny Get Angry
23rd – Ocean Billy

Quinella: $21.80
Exacta: $72.70
Trifecta: $436.20
First Four: $5,413.50

Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Review – Grading Australia’s Performance

Posted on August 15, 2021 by Admin

15 August 2021

A year late, no fans attending, and pressure to cancel the entire event, the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games surpassed all expectations and provided the world with a wonderful fillip as it still manages the COVID-19 pandemic. These were the pressure Games, with the pressure to finally allow the athletes to compete, the pressure to prevent COVID-19 wreaking havoc, and the pressure simply to succeed. They did so easily, while also reminding us the Olympics are about sport itself. Without the glitz and hype, it was allowed to shine through in its purest form, with many memorable performances and achievements.

Tokyo 2020 were also the pressure Games for Australia. After two C-grade performances at recent Olympics, the pressure was on Australian athletes to deliver on the millions of dollars invested in them and return the country to its previous status of an A-grade Olympic nation and delivering at least 10 gold medals, if not a few more. While the performances were spotty among the individual sports, overall the country succeeded.

Tokyo Olympic Games 2020 Medal Table - Review - Grading Australia's Performance — Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Medal Table

Swimming: 9 gold, 3 silver, 8 bronze

This was a redemption Olympics when Australia’s high profile and much vaunted swimming team finally hit its potential. Despite the media adulation for the gold medals it has returned over the years, reality is those overall returns were often well below expectation. In true Australian style, these failures were buried by the media and Australian culture in general, preferring only ever to focus on winners and not dwell on the failures, especially those that under performed. Internal reviews might note it much later on, and well beyond any great media scrutiny, and it seems many of the lessons were learnt. It’s just a shame it took so long.

Ariarne Titmus - Gold Medal Women's 400 Freestyle - Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Review - Grading Australia's Performance — Ariarne Titmus – Gold Medal Women’s 400 Freestyle – Tokyo 2020 – Image: Getty

The rot started at Barcelona 1992 when Kieren Perkins was hoped to win two, if not three gold medals. He won one – the lone gold for the swimmers. Remember Samantha Riley and Daniel Kowalski in 1996? Both flopped. Riley famously was one of only three women to stop a complete Chinese sweep of the gold medals at the 1994 world championships when winning the 100 and 200 breaststroke (the former in world record time), only to fold two years later in Atlanta with a solitary bronze in her two individual events. She explained it as “it’s a racing meet; times don’t matter”. Mitch Larkin would echo a similar phrase in Rio, 24 years later. No, ignore your opponents, swim your own race, and win the gold. It’s a simple formula.

This poisonous mentality permeated the entire swimming team and endured for many Olympics, with the sources likely the coaches and sports psychologists. Even culturally, there’s something about Australians that can’t accept losses, preferring to spin it into a positive like “it’s still a great achievement to make an Olympic final”. It’s usually favourites that capitulate, believing their existing dominance entitles them to bully the opposition when should remain respectful and composed. The famed “Aussie fighting spirit” is only seen in situations of adversity or an underdog situation when the pressure is off. With the pressure on, they crumble.

Susie O’Neill (200BF) and the men’s 1500F (Perkins upset Kowalski) came through for the only two gold in Atlanta. At Sydney 2000, Ian Thorpe lost the 200 freestyle final after going out too hard and laughably explained his silver as “happy with the result, not the performance”. No, it should be the other way around, or unhappy with both. While O’Neill failed in her pet 200 fly (beaten by American Misty Hyman) and Michael Klim and Geoff Huegill both failed in the 100 fly (upset by Sweden’s Lars Frolander), O’Neill did get the gold in the 200 free – her weaker event. Still, for all her dominance in 200 butterfly over the years, 1 gold was an under achievement, and that Sydney 200BF flop typified Australia’s inability to produce swimmers dominant enough to win multiple gold medals at a single Olympics. For all the swimmers it took for Australia to win 5 gold medals in Sydney (3 individuals and 2 relay teams), Netherlands did it with just two: Inge de Bruijn (3) and Pieter van den Hoogenband (2, including the win over Thorpe in the 200F).

At Athens 2004, more was expected from the men’s 4x200F relay (dominant for 8 years; returned only 1 Olympic gold), Grant Hackett in the 400F and Liesel Jones in breaststroke. Then the mother of all chokes, Beijing 2008. Sports Illustrated slotted Australia for 12 gold medals, perhaps 15, not the 6 ultimately won. While the men failed to produce any gold (100F and 1500F notable misses), more was expected from the likes of Jessicah Schipper and Libby Trickett. Liesel Jones finally got an individual gold medal from a total of 5 individual swims in 3 Olympics.

London 2012 and Rio 2016 were noted flops. Even though much wasn’t expected from London (1 gold), the men’s 4x100F relay, led by James Magnussen, Cameron McEvoy and Eamon Sullivan, were hot favourites, only to implode for a bronze medal. Magnussen and Emily Seebohm then disappointed in their finals for silver, especially Seebohm. Repeating her heat time would have won gold – a tale of woe for many failures. Swim well in heats or semis, only to go slower in the final. Magnussen was unlucky when losing gold by 1/100th of a second in the 100F.

Three gold in Rio was about anticipated for a team in transition and a country running their qualifying trials several weeks before the Olympics like the Americans do. Previously, they were months earlier, meaning swimmers had to peak twice in the year. Even with the low anticipation for gold, Kyle Chalmers swam a big personal best to save Australia’s blushes in the 100F when Cameron McEvoy fell apart and finished 7th. Madeline Groves went within a whisker of gold in the 200BF. The most notorious choke of all was Cate Campbell in the 100F. Held the world record, was faster qualifier by miles, yet got spooked, went out too hard and flopped to fifth.

For the big gold medal haul in Tokyo, the difference was most swimmers swimming their best, and dominant swimmers being dominant. Australia typically relies on an individual gold here and there, and a relay or two, for its gold medals. In Tokyo, the likes of Emma McKeon, Kaylee McKeown and Ariarne Titmus all bagged two gold each (although, it should have been three for McKeown). McKeon and Titmus were two of the new swimmers on the scene and managed to swim wonderfully controlled races, while the veteran McKeon transformed herself from a 200 freestyle swimmer to a sprint specialists and won both the 50F and 100F. Add two in the relays, and that’s 8 gold medals for the women.

Zac Stubblety-Cook stepped up to deliver somewhat a surprise gold medal in the 200BR – the only one for the men. Although, two golds did get away. Elijah Winnington flopped in the 400F (7th) while Brendon Smith (3rd) would have won gold in the 400IM had he repeated his heat time. It was 1.1 seconds slower in the final. Kyle Chalmers was just .06 from gold in the 100F, so can count himself unlucky.

The women missed two themselves, which included McKeown becoming a triple gold medalist had she not withdrawn from the 200IM. Apparently it was to rest from that evening’s 200IM heats for the next day’s 200B semis, even though she could have swum backwards in both of those events and qualified for the next stage. Then there was the 4x200F relay falling to bronze. Even though China won gold in a world record time and Australia was under the old world record, the narrow 0.96 second difference to bronze was easily manageable had the team performed at their best (both Titmus and McKeon 1 second off their best) and if not for the inexplicable decision to leave out Mollie O’Callaghan. Her heat time was second fastest of all the 8 swimmers that swum (4 in the heats, 4 in the final) yet she couldn’t be elevated to the final because Australia nominated 8 competitors for the event so they all had to swim at some point. Normally, 6 get nominated and you promote the two fastest from the heats to the final. Accusations were cast that Swimming Australia were trying to get a gold medal for 8 swimmers, so confident (or arrogant) that Australia would win.

While 9 gold medals could easily have been 14, it could easily have been 5 if not for Stubblety-Cook’s performance and the women’s 4×100 medley relay narrowly winning and McKeon’s evolution and even Titmus beating USA’s Katie Ledecky in the 400F. We’ll take this as a resounding success and it be officially Australia’s best ever swimming performance at the Olympics. The previous best was 8 gold medals at the home Olympics of Melbourne 1956.

Grade: A

Rowing: 2, 0, 2

Australia hopes to win two gold medals and achieved it in the men’s and women’s fours. Two Oarsome Foursomes.

Grade: A

Cycling: 0, 0, 2

One of Australia’s strongest sports returned just two bronze medals – the second horror Olympics in a row. Rohan Dennis was a heavy favourite (and a double world champion) in the road time trial while the men’s 4000 metre team pursuit suffered equipment failure and consequentially a fall in qualifying, meaning bronze was the best they could do. No one has stepped up in the women’s sprint events, the men flopped in their events, while in women’s track endurance both the omnium and team pursuit faltered. The road was even worse. At Athens 2004, Australia won 6 gold medals. To not even win one gold at an Olympics is simply unacceptable, while 2 should be the minimum standard.

Grade: F

Athletics: 0, 1, 2

Zero gold is not a success despite the spin from commentators about minor medals and top 8 finishes. Silver came in women’s high jump, and the bronze in women’s javelin and men’s decathlon.

Grade: B

Basketball: 0, 0, 1

Women were a disaster, winning only one match and losing to USA in the quarter finals. Men finally won a medal after many attempts, including four losses in bronze medal games. Both teams have aspiration for gold, and both losing heavily to USA show there’s still much more work to be done. The men lost in the semi finals before beating Slovenia for bronze.

Grade: C

Canoe Slalom: 1, 0, 1

Jessica Fox will still rue missing the gold in the K1 after hitting an early gate and then narrowly clipping the final upstream gate. One less penalty (worth 2 seconds in time) and she wins gold, and based on her comments, she went out too hard after previous competitors made good runs. The first penalty was careless while the second one was trying extra hard to compensate for the first. She recovered and blasted a composed run in her more dominant (and new for women) C1 event for that elusive gold. Given her dominance in both disciplines in the sport over the years, especially as a multiple world champion, and now with three minor medals in K1, it can’t be complete satisfaction for her, nor a complete success for these Olympics.

Grade: B

Canoe Sprint: 1, 0, 0

Would have hoped for a minor medal or two to add to the gold. Snagging a gold in this sport, especially in a minor upset as it was in the men’s K2 1000, is usually seen as a bonus.

Grade: A-

Equestrian: 0, 1, 1

Australia likes to win at least one gold, notably in eventing. Silver in the team and bronze in the individual is an adequate return.

Grade: B+

Field Hockey: 0, 1, 0

Again, Australia hopes to win at least one gold. The women eliminated early by India in an upset and Belgium just too good for the men in the final. A lot of money gets pumped into hockey, and with no medals in Rio, questions might be asked whether it’s worth it. It’s probably more to encourage widespread participation.

Grade: B

Football: 0, 0, 0

The women lost four games (two each to Sweden and USA) and the two wins were not convincing (2-1 vs New Zealand in the group and 4-3 in extra time over a superior Great Britain in the quarter final) to show they’re not up to standard. The Matildas only qualified from the group phase as a best third placed team as there were only 12 teams in Japan, with two of the three best third placed teams progressing. Australia lost to Sweden and USA in the group phase, and then again to Sweden the semis and USA in the bronze medal match.

The men were eliminated in the group stage after losing to Egypt in the final match after only needing a draw to progress. The Olyroos beat Argentina in the first group match, narrowly lost to Spain in the second match, so not to progress was disappointing.

Overall, football has no place in the Olympics anymore. The World Cup has by far surpassed it as the sport’s main event, and with the men’s competition an age-restricted one and the women’s with such few teams, it’s a redundant event and only ever gains any interest if your country is playing for a medal. Football continues to be in the Games because it earns so much revenue by being hosted in various cities and in large stadiums around the host country.

Grade: D

Sailing: 2, 0, 0

Two gold medals (in men’s laser and men’s 470) are optimal for a team that’s delivered plenty of success in recent Olympics. Perhaps an extra medal or two for a better grade.

Grade: A-

Tennis: 0, 0, 1

Much was expected from Ashleigh Barty in women’s singles yet she was dumped in the early rounds. Another choke when representing Australia, just like when losing the deciding Fed Cup match to Kristina Mladenovic of France at home, in Perth, in 2019. Stealing a bronze in mixed doubles after Novak Djokovic and Serbia withdrew from the bronze medal match was some salvation in an otherwise dismal showing for Australia. Tennis, like football, baseball/softball, and especially golf, should not be in the Olympics. Their pinnacles in achievement are elsewhere and no one really cares about them.

Grade: F

New Events: 2, 0, 1

Snagging gold in men’s BMX Freestlye and Stakeboarding Park was a nice bonus. A bronze in men’s surfing probably below expectations. Sport Climbing was exciting and a great addition, as was surfing. The surfers really embraced it, were so passionate, and the competition was good. Carissa Moore, who represents Hawaii on the professional tour, was full of tears and joy when winning for the USA. Can’t see the point of 3×3 basketball except it allowed Latvia, in the men’s event, to win their only gold medal. USA won the women’s.

Grade: A

Overall: 17 gold, 7 silver, 22 bronze

A total wipeout in triathlon was disappointing while silver in women’s beach volleyball was nice. The most compelling statistic of the medal haul is the strike rate. With 17 gold from 46 medals, it shows Australia won many close events. In contrast, Sydney 2000’s strike rate was 16 from 58 medals, including 25 silver. Athens 2004 was 17 from 50 and Melbourne 1956 was 13 from 35 (including 8 silver).

More illustrative is some of the other host nations. Japan won 27 from 58 medals in Tokyo. So the same total as Australia in Sydney, just with a far superior strike rate. In Sydney Japan won just 5 gold, and 3 each at Atlanta 1996 and Barcelona 1992, so they also showed a remarkable improvement. Spain was just as remarkable with 13 gold from 22 medals in Barcelona (7 silver) after only single gold medals at the previous 3 Olympics. China went 48 from 100 in Beijing and Great Britain 29 from 65 in London. So all are around a 50% strike rate, which confirms Australia’s poor display in Sydney and their excellent achievement in Tokyo where they performed similar to that of a host nation.

Grade: A

Best Medals

Undoubtedly, Ariarne Titmus beating Katie Ledecky in the 400 freestyle. It was the event they were mostly evenly matched in, it was the race most hyped, and had the most exciting conclusion when Titmus overhauled Ledecky on the last lap. It also set the tone for the rest of the swimming team. Jessica Fox winning gold in the C1 Canoe Slalom was obviously up there for so many reasons (mostly emotional), and the bronze in men’s basketball is also there for similar reasons.

The most special gold medal should be one awarded to Japan itself. They defied mounting pressure to cancel the Games, and delivered an Olympics that ran smoothly and, in terms of pure sporting excellence and excitement, was as good as any. Arigato to this wonderful country and their beautiful people. They can be proud.

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Sochi 2014 Review – Champs, Chumps and Putin

Melbourne Cup 2020 – Preview and Review

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Admin

3 November 2020

After landing the trifecta and a small bet on the winner, Vow And Declare, last year, let’s twice make it two in a row. As usual, I’ll run my process of elimination by looking at class, form, ability to run the distance, previous Melbourne Cup runs, the poor guide of the Caulfield Cup in recent years, international horses on their first run, mares (female horses) and weight. Top weights and mares rarely do well unless they are superstars and Vow And Declare is the only spark for Caulfield Cup placings (2nd last year) in recent times.

The past three years has seen European 3 year olds perform well, finishing third last year and winning the previous two. Due to the separate breeding season in the northern hemisphere, these horses are closer to 4 year olds on Australian time, so immaturity is much less of a factor while they are still nicely weighted. In contrast, a northern 4 year old is more seasoned and has plenty of exposed form, so ends up quite high in the weights. Weight, more specifically weight difference (weights are reduced in handicaps to even the field), makes a huge difference.

With the temperature forecast for 30 degrees, that might present a problem for some of the Europeans. Not only are they out of season, the track will likely be firm.

PREVIEW

01 Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) 58.5kg $9

The class horse of the field and second in the Caulfield Cup. Never been over the distance and the weather would be a worry. Probably one to risk.

02 Avilius (GB) 57kg $51

Not in form.

03 Vow And Declare (AUS) 57kg $51

Last year’s winner hasn’t looked like winning since.

04 Master Of Reality (IRE) 56kg $20

Second over the line last year before relegated to fourth after a protest. Hasn’t done much since so go on last year.

05 Sir Dragonet (IRE) 55.5kg $11

Cox Plate winner probably a distance doubt and prefers a wet track.

06 Twilight Payment (IRE) 55.5kg $21

Flopped last year.

07 Verry Elleegant (NZ) 55.5kg $11

Caulfield Cup winner will need to be a superstar to win. Not sure she is. Also a doubt at the distance and prefers it wet.

08 Mustajeer (GB) 55kg $71

Flopped last year.

09 Stratum Albion (GB) 55kg $51

A bit of a plodder. Melbourne Cup winners need a sprint.

10 Dashing Willoughby (GB) 54.5kg $81

Flopped in the Caulfield Cup

11 Finche (GB) 54.5kg $19

Third try at it and always runs on without threatening. Likely a repeat.

12 Prince of Arran (GB) 54.5kg $10

Second last year (after a protest) and third the year before. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup, which proves he’s at least settled in. The omen bet of the year as he starts from barrier 1 and has a female jockey (Jamie Kah). Just like Prince of Penzance in 2015 with Michelle Payne.

13 Suprise Baby (NZ) 54.5kg $8.50

Need to go on his good run last year when finishing a close 5th. In his few runs since, hasn’t done too much since so go on trust.

14 King of Leogrance (FR) 53.5kg $51

Not good enough.

15 Russian Camelot (IRE) 53.5kg $12

Best of the locally trained horses. Second in a Cox Plate after a hard run, and is a classy horse. Has champion jockey Damien Oliver on board.

16 Steel Prince (IRE) 53.5kg $41

Doesn’t seem quite up to standard and only 9th last year.

17 The Chosen One (NZ) 53.5kg $41

Third in the Caulfield Cup and a flop in last year’s Melbourne Cup. That sort of says two things: he’s average and so was this year’s Caulfield Cup.

18 Ashrun (FR) 53kg $23

I’ll have something on it just for the name. They wanted him to qualify by winning the Geelong Cup (4th) the Wednesday before last so had to win the Hotham Handicap on Saturday to get in. Has good form in Europe and down in the weights. The same trainer won in 2014 with Protectionist so he knows how to get a horse here. It’s whether running three times in such a short period will harm him – something unusual for European horses.

19 Warning (AUS) 53kg $51

Victoria Derby winner last year, and the only two horses to win that then the Melbourne Cup the following year were Efficient in 2007 and Phar Lap in 1930. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup and was a close up in the Turnbull Stakes. The best of the long shots.

20 Etah James (NZ) 52.5kg $81

No hope.

21 Tiger Moth (IRE) 52.5kg $7.50

Only his fifth start hence the very low weight for a horse that fits the classic profile of those northern hemisphere 3 year olds. His European form is good (in small fields) so will need to go on that and ignore any concerns with inexperience. With no crowds due to the mishandling of COVID-19 in Victoria, it’s only the big field of 24 horses that could frazzle him.

22 Oceanex (NZ) 51.5kg $71

Form not good enough.

23 Miami Bound (NZ) 51kg $35

Ditto.

24 Persan (AUS) 51kg $34

Progressive horse in super form in lower grades. If he can step up, who knows! When I was kid, all I ever did when selecting horses was look at their form, and Persan’s last six runs are 112121.

Melbourne Cup 2020 - Preview and Review — Melbourne Cup 2020 Field by Odds

SELECTIONS

I’m launching for Prince of Arran due to his excellent previous runs and the omen factor with Prince of Penzance in 2015. Tiger Moth is clearly the horse to fear. They’ll be my main two best. I’ll also have a nibble on Ashrun and Persan at longer odds.

For the trifecta I’ll add Russian Camelot as the third horse. For my big trifecta, I include three horses first or second and a bunch in third. That’s how I landed it last year. My other trifecta is a simple 5-horse box (any 5 in any order in the first three) and will add Surprise Baby and Anthony Van Dyck in that mix.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!

REVIEW

In an exciting race, Twilight Payment superbly led all the way to win from a fast closing Tiger Moth and Prince of Arran. Despite the winning dividend of $23 (so he was hardly an outsider), it was a win that no one predicted. Across the news and the horse racing channels, the only mention was that he was in better form than last year. Even then, his lack of a sprint wiped him as a chance, as the feeling was other horses would run past him like last year. The difference in 2020 was that he set a solid tempo, which took the sprint out of many horses and it was only the final stages as he tired that horses began to close.

Tiger Moth in second was sensational. He was second past the post the first time, was forced to do the chasing when Twilight Payment and then Finche put the pressure on, and then closed late, falling by about a half a length. Arguably Prince of Arran should have won to improve on his previous results of third and second. Jockey Jamie Kah was too impatient heading into the straight, weaving about trying to find a path through. Had she stuck behind The Chosen One (who finished fourth), she could have peeled off in plenty of time and likely caught the winner. By the time she got out for a run, it was too late. Kah said the horse was “super unlucky”. That’s an understatement. Clearly it’s a race that got away.

In fifth was Persan, who was behind Prince of Arran leading into the straight, and got through on the inside, to emphasise the chance missed by Prince of Arran. Many jockeys said their horses got too far back. In truth, in a solidly run race just 1 second off the race record, they weren’t quite good enough. Only Russian Camelot you could say failed to run the trip after looming as the winner. Of the favourites, Surprise Baby (13th) was the main failure. I always felt this horse was a bit of a hype machine. It had been specifically set for the race this year and the few runs it had in the past year were moderate. It’s like everyone believed the trainer was a secret magician. Sadly, Anthony Van Dyck had to be put down after a fracturing a leg upon entering the straight.

Even though I picked second and third, it was a wipeout for me as I don’t do place bets unless the horse is at big odds. It might also be time not to be so rigid to rules. Other than last year’s big success landing the trifecta, I have to go back to 2011 and 2010 to have picked the winner. Not since Brew in 2000 has a horse returned from a poor Cup result to win the following year. There’s often exceptions to rules, and in the case of Brew and Twilight Payment it was form. As a kid, that was the only thing I’d ever look at, and Twilight Payment’s last four runs were 2113. While I had him in my wide trifecta for third, he was definitely worth a nibble for the win. Always easy in hindsight.

An unbelievable performance from Twilight Payment who has won the Lexus #MelbourneCup.

Jye McNeil is now a Cup winner, what a star. ⭐️ @FlemingtonVRC @RacingInsider pic.twitter.com/GMoXvNdRhG
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 3, 2020

RESULTS

1st Twilight Payment – Win $23, Place $6.50
2nd Tiger Moth – Place $2.40
3rd Prince of Arran – $3.30
4th The Chosen One

Quinella: $97.20
Exacta: $211.60
Trifecta: $1806.90
First Four: $38939.50

FINISHING ORDER

01 Twilight Payment
02 Tiger Moth
03 Prince Of Arran
04 The Chosen One
05 Persan
06 Sir Dragonet
07 Verry Elleegant
08 Russian Camelot
09 Finche
10 Ashrun
11 Oceanex
12 Warning
13 Surprise Baby
14 Miami Bound
15 Master Of Reality
16 Steel Prince
17 Etah James
18 Vow And Declare
19 Mustajeer
20 Stratum Albion
21 Dashing Willoughby
22 Avilius
DNF Anthony Van Dyck
SCR King of Leogrance

Melbourne Cup 2019 – Preview & Review

Posted on November 4, 2019 by Admin

4 November 2019

After a big win on the Caulfield Cup thanks to Mer De Glace, it’s time to blow it all on the Melbourne Cup. That’s roughly been the pattern for the last few years as I’m still chasing a big win since the double success in 2010 and 2011.

While strict adherence to some rules has been an undoing in some years (notably Fiorente in 2013), let’s not ignore that generally these rules are important. The main ones seem obvious: the horse is good enough; the horse is in good form; and, the horse can run the 3200m distance. Then there’s a subset of rules: previous Cup failures generally fail again (don’t consider a high placing, especially second, a failure!); international horses without a run in Australia first are a mystery; the Caulfield Cup confirms itself more and more as race to distrust (largely because many horses bypass it and it’s become more of a race for specialist 2400m horses); and, Japanese horses are a Melbourne Cup query (other than the quinella in 2006, all have been a disaster). A new pattern emerging is that European 3 year olds do well. They won the past two years and capitalise on extra maturity due to the opposite breeding season in the northern hemisphere while still retaining a light weight. The handicapper as tried to compensate by giving them 52.5kg this year, up 1.5kg from that of Cross Counter last year. Due to the wet weather, the track will likely be on the soft side, so that will affect many horses, both good and bad.

01 Cross Counter 57.5kg (GB)

Last year’s winner is a year older at 4, and 6.5 kgs higher in weight. There’s only ever been 5 multiple Cup winners, with one of those not in successive years, and top weights often struggle. His European form doesn’t seem as strong as last year.

02 Mer De Glace 56 (JPN)

Never run beyond 2400 metres and Caulfield Cup winners have had a poor recent record, with the last success in 2001. Likely soft ground will be a concern, as will the barrier of 2 as apparently he doesn’t like being crowded. The big positive is he has won six straight. As they say, winning form is good form.

03 Master Of Reality 55.5 (IRE)

International horse without the form of others, and the Cup will be his first run here.

04 Mirage Dancer 55.5 (GB)

Caulfield Cup run was good; might be a distance doubt.

05 Southern France 55.5 (IRE)

Form looks good compared to other Europeans – except for a huge loss over the distance to Cross Counter.

06 Hunting Horn 55 (IRE)

Won the Moonee Valley Cup, which doesn’t say much other than he’s settled in. Probably not up to the standard.

07 Latrobe 55 (IRE)

Not in great form, and hasn’t won over 2400 metres.

08 Mustajeer 55 (GB)

Won the Ebor Handicap, which hasn’t been a great guide. Caulfield Cup run was good… except for those that finished even better.

09 Rostropovich 55 (IRE)

Fifth last year in the race, and hasn’t done much since. That’s probably about his level.

10 Twilight Payment 55 (IRE)

Overseas form suggests look to others.

11 Finche 54 (GB)

Fourth last year and ran well in all his Australian runs. The only niggle is he’s a bit of a plodder so others could run past him at the end.

12 Prince Of Arran 54 (GB)

A very similar story to Finche: third last year and has been running well in Australia this year.

13 Raymond Tusk 54 (IRE)

Doesn’t seem to have the ability of others from Europe.

14 Downdraft 53.5 (IRE)

Won the Hotham on Saturday, which can be a good guide for local horses. It’s foreign for internationals to run their next race only 3 days later, and all that tried have failed spectacularly. Class could be a concern too.

15 Magic Wand 53.5 (IRE)

While fourth in the 2040m Cox Plate is good, she looks a doubt at the 3200m Melbourne Cup. European mares don’t have a great record either.

16 Neufbosc 53.5 (FRA)

Not good enough.

17 Sound 53.5 (GER)

Ran as Sound Check last year and did nothing. Done nothing since.

18 Surprise Baby 53.5 (NZ)

Will be high in the betting due to the name. He should handle the distance, is an improving type and won the Bart Cummings. That compares very well to the 2016 winner, Almandin.

19 Constantinople 52.5 (IRE)

Ran on well in the Caulfield Cup, fits the profile of a European 3yo, and has a nice low weight.

20 Il Paradiso 52.5 (USA)

Another European trained 3yo. Except, this one we haven’t seen race here. Doesn’t quite seem to have the class either.

21 Steel Prince 52.5 (IRE)

Locally trained horse that doesn’t seem good enough.

22 The Chosen One 52 (NZ)

Has been well beaten by plenty of others in the field in other races.

23 Vow And Declare 52 (AUS)

The strongest local hope in years. Lead-up form is good, distance should be fine, a nice weight, and can sprint. The only shame is that annoying Craig Williams is riding him.

24 Youngstar 52 (AUS)

Form no where near as good as last year, when she finished fifth.

SELECTIONS

Sticking with Finche and Prince Of Arran to repeat their good runs of last year and hopefully do a bit better. Both are back with comparable, if not better form, and have nice weights. Surprise Baby smells like one of those old style Melbourne Cup winners that emerge on the scene with impressive runs and ultimately win the Cup. Vow And Declare looks solid too.

Melbourne Cup 2019 Odds - Preview and Review

In a really competitive race, $8 for the favourite is ridiculously good value. Surprise Baby and Prince Of Arran are at $15 and $19 respectively, so they represent a bit better value from my selections. Even something approximating an outsider like Southern France is at $23. It’s important to note that Mer De Glace’s price is a result of the huge plunge after he won the Caulfield Cup. There’s been little support for him since.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!

THE RACE

It was a classic, exciting race won by Vow And Declare in a tight finish ahead of Prince Of Arran and Il Paradiso. Vow And Declare is the first Australian bred and trained horse to win the race since Shocking in 2009. Even allowing for the slightly soft track, it was a very slowly run race at 8 seconds off the race record set in 1990 by Kingston Rule on a fast track. The first four horses finished within a neck of each other, with much of the rest of the field in a big group just behind. The sit and sprint nature of the race favoured those near the lead, leaving backmarkers little chance to run them down. The only exceptions were the lightweights Il Paradiso and Surprise Baby.

Vow And Declare wins the 2019 Melbourne Cup – Image: CNN

Second over the line was Master Of Reality, who led into the straight and looked the likely winner until the late rally by Vow And Declare. Master Of Reality would be relegated to fourth after causing interference on Il Paradiso (4th over the line). With the horse drifting out, jockey Frankie Dettori switched the whip to his right hand, which made the horse lay in and ultimately crunch a fast charging Il Paradiso. That promoted Il Paradiso to third and Prince of Arran to second (third over the line). With that, it meant I landed my biggest trifecta ever of just under $3000. My only other Melbourne Cup trifecta was in 2010, which paid just over $350 by memory. I also collected with a small win bet on the winner. That breaks an 8 year drought of picking a winner and collecting a big pay day. As they say, when it rains, it pours.

Master Of Reality was the biggest surprise run, with the only person I saw mentioning him in their tips was Sky Racing’s Ron Dufficy as his fourth pick. Despite his sound form lines in Europe, the 55.5kg would have caused people to look elsewhere, as lower weighted European horses have been the recent trend. Indeed, Il Paradiso had only 52.5, and Vow And Declare, a 4 year old, got into the race with just 52. Prince Of Arran, third last year, had a nice 54. Phar Lap was the last horse to finish third one year and win the next year. I guess Prince Of Arran is no Phar Lap! I wonder if there’s any history of a horse running a sequence of third, second and first? Let’s see if Francesca Cumani has that ready for us next year.

Covering the other runners, the fear with Finche (7th) was he’s a bit of a plodder and, indeed, he couldn’t sprint with them at the top of the straight. He still ran on well and was gaining ground at the end. Surprise Baby (5th) stormed from near last down the outside to be the most spectacular run, while Il Paradiso (3rd) made his run along the inside after badly missing the start. Japan’s Mer De Glace (6th) ran on well with his high weight, as did last year’s winner and the top weight Cross Counter (8th). It shows you the effect of weight, as Cross Counter easily beat Prince Of Arran and Finche with last year carrying just 51kg, and got beaten by them this year. Steel Prince (9th) ran beyond expectations, while Magic Wand (10th), Constantinople (13th), Mirage Dancer (14th), Latrobe (18th), Southern France (19th), Downdraft (22nd) and Mustajeer (23rd) didn’t seem to run the distance. The latter presented well into the straight and folded. Downdraft ran on the Saturday, so might have been tired. Rostropovich (24th) pulled up with an injury.

Sound (12th), Hunting Horn (15th), The Chosen One (17th), Youngstar (20th) and Neufbosc (21st) weren’t good enough or in the right form. Twilight Payment (11th) and Raymond Tusk (16th) couldn’t sprint when required. Note both Mustajeer and Raymond Tusk came from the Ebor Handicap – a race notoriously difficult to trust. In other trends, the poor results for Japan continued, and while the Caulfield Cup finally produced a Melbourne Cup winner (Viewed 10th in 2008 and Delta Blues 3rd in 2006 were the last two), this might have been an odd year out, plus the Melbourne Cup itself was such a strangely run race. Really, this year’s race is a difficult one to rate. The slow speed removed the stamina test and made it a sprinting test.

It’s worthwhile mentioning the two horses scratched after they were CT scanned and showed a hot spot. Marmelo was the most notable as he finished second last year. While the trainer was furious, it’s important to note that all the recent leg fractures during the race were to Europeans. Clearly they are susceptible and every precaution must be taken. In time, these preemptive scans will become an accepted practice. Channel 10 should be praised for their excellent coverage after taking the rights from Channel 7. Fears of a trashy, bogan coverage normally associated with the channel never materialised. It was a professional coverage that kept most of the focus on the racing, and extra credit for the use of Brittany Taylor doing the jockey interviews after the race. She was a great discovery out of Western Australia, and epitomised the professional approach with her well spoken demeanor and excellent interviews, and complimented the main host, Francesca Cumani, really well. Perhaps the only area in need of improvement was their pre-race horse information graphics, as they didn’t quite have all the information required.

It was Vow And Declare's #MelbourneCup but gee there were some strong finishers! 🏆

Who's run impressed you the most? pic.twitter.com/VP08b8L12b
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 5, 2019

RESULT
05/11/2019

1ST: VOW AND DECLARE Win: $11.70 Place $3.90
2ND: PRINCE OF ARRAN Place: $4.60
3RD: IL PARADISO Place: 6.80
4TH: MASTER OF REALITY

Quinella: $175.80
Trifecta: $2,953.40
First Four: $79,381.40

My Melbourne Cup 2019 trifecta — My trifecta that landed

FINISHING ORDER

01 VOW AND DECLARE
02 PRINCE OF ARRAN
03 IL PARADISO
04 MASTER OF REALITY
05 SURPRISE BABY
06 MER DE GLACE
07 FINCHE
08 CROSS COUNTER
09 STEEL PRINCE
10 MAGIC WAND
11 TWILIGHT PAYMENT
12 SOUND
13 CONSTANTINOPLE
14 MIRAGE DANCER
15 HUNTING HORN
16 RAYMOND TUSK
17 THE CHOSEN ONE
18 LATROBE
19 SOUTHERN FRANCE
20 YOUNGSTAR
21 NEUFBOSC
22 DOWNDRAFT
23 MUSTAJEER
24 ROSTROPOVICH

France 2019 – Women’s World Cup Review

Posted on July 13, 2019 by Admin

Alan Stajcic sacked for no reason sees Australia predictably fail

13 July 2019

On the surface, a loss to Norway at the round of 16 stage via a penalty shootout after 1-1 draw doesn’t seem so bad. It could even be explained as simply being unlucky. In reality, the loss capped off a disastrous few months for the Matildas, as Australia’s women’s soccer team went from genuine World Cup contenders to an inept defensive unit and struggling to beat teams they ordinarily were dealing with quite easily.

The troubles started when Alan Stajcic was sacked as coach by Football Federation Australia in January for apparently overseeing a poor playing environment following a “Matildas Wellbeing Audit”. A quarter of a players in two confidential surveys – the type that are notoriously used to inflate personal grievances into systemic problems – said they felt under stress, while the FFA cited “workplace culture” and “player welfare” issues. Director Heather Reid was quoted in the media at the time saying “if people knew the actual facts about Mr Stajcic’s behaviour ‘they would be shocked’.”

This was all a lie as FFA wanted Stajcic out for reasons unclear. While CEO David Gallop maintains Stajcic was sacked to give Australia “the best chance to perform at the World Cup”, who did they hire as his replacement? No, not Jesus, who would be just about the only person who could be doing better with the Matildas at the time. They hired Ante Milicic! This was a coach getting his first serious senior gig! So you replace a proven performer, who had won the Tournament of Nations in 2017, beating USA, Japan and thrashing Brazil 6-1 along the way, and followed that in 2018 with wins over Brazil and Japan and a draw against the USA, with a newcomer.

France 2019 - Women's World Cup Review - Sam Kerr misses penalty shootout kick for Australia vs Norway — Sam Kerr despondent after missing her penalty in the shootout as Australia lose 4-1 to Norway. Image: fifa.com

It’s utterly bonkers the FFA can expect anyone to seriously believe them and, indeed, Heather Reid would later apologise and withdraw her statements “entirely and unconditionally”. She would say “I apologise unreservedly for the damage, distress and hurt that I have caused to Alen Stajcic” and “I apologise also for pain and suffering that I have caused to Mr Stajcic’s wife and two young children”, while the FFA confirmed “Stajcic’s contract was not terminated on the basis that he had breached his contract or had engaged in any misconduct”. Reid has been on indefinite leave from the FFA board due to health reasons since the crisis started, and that’s probably the reason she hasn’t been sacked yet. Gallop has announced he will leave in December – at least 12 months too late. He should have quit the moment the Matildas, and therefore he, failed.

Still we don’t know why Stajcic was really sacked. Either that survey, in this crazy “woke” era we live in, spooked the FFA into a ridiculous overreaction, or the FFA wanted him out for whatever reason and commissioned the survey hoping to get some dirt to use against Stajcic. Many high profile players were stunned at his sacking, and defended Stajcic publicly. Indeed, many didn’t even realise the survey would be used against Stajcic, and had they known, might not have been so cavalier in answering it. So if there is any legitimacy to player distress, it’s probably only a handful of younger snowflake peripheral players who think earning a spot in a national team should be easy.

No surprise it was a dreadful start for Australia in its opening game against Italy when Italy tore them apart, and were unlucky to only win 2-1. They constantly breached Australia’s high defending, while Australia lacked cohesion going forward, and wasted possession. This was a continuation of the pattern we’d already seen in preparation games against USA and Netherlands, in which Australia lost 5-2 and 3-0, with the latter result only one week before Australia’s opening World Cup match.

It must be noted that team pedigree for the women does not align with the men. Even though they were current European champions, this was Netherlands’ second ever World Cup, while Italy hadn’t qualified in 20 years. France is still developing, while Spain is a step behind. Germany is the only traditional European power to excel, when winning the World Cup in 2003 and 2007. Norway has been the traditional European power (won in 1995), with Sweden just below them, as these were the first European countries that empowered women to play. In recent years, the more traditional powers have started domestic leagues for women and are beginning to exert their force. South America is still way behind with only Brazil showing glimpses of ability to challenge the best teams. China led the way in Asian initially before Japan took over (won in 2011). Now Japan are off the boil. Of course, the best female team traditionally is the USA. Australia’s mostly hovered around the second tier of teams over the years, and only hit the top tier in recent years under Alan Stajcic. Of course, he was sacked before his true test, at this World Cup in France.

Australia’s second match was against Brazil, which they won 3-2 after falling behind 2-0 – again being caught high. A goal just before half time was able to provide confidence leading into the second half. Still, it must be tempered with the fact that Brazil had lost 9 games leading into this World Cup before beating lowly Jamaica in their opening Cup game, and only lost to Australia due to a dreadful own goal by Monica.

Jamaica would be Australia’s final game in the group, and again it proved a struggle, and they had to thank some poor Jamaican defending and a goal-keeping blunder in their 4-1 win. At 2-1, Jamaica actually looked ominous until Australia snuck a goal.

Against Norway in that round of 16 clash, Australia were caught high again when falling behind, before managing to equalise late through a fluky direct corner. Naturally the Australian media whinged about being dudded against Norway. A penalty was awarded to Australia for allegedly hand-ball in the box. Replays show the ball hit the Norwegian’s shoulder and it would have been a clear and obvious error had the penalty not been rescinded.

If Australia were dudded, it was sacking coach Alan Stajcic for no reason months before the World Cup started. The defense was diabolical ever ever since, conceding multiple goals in most matches, and were lucky to beat Brazil and survive the group. Let’s not fault the players either. This debacle was all administrative, as when you sack the coach for no reason just months before the World Cup starts, you can’t expect it to go without consequences. The Matildas were put in an unmanageable position to succeed.

So the World Cup that seemingly Australia was on the precipice of achieving their best ever result, if not winning, ended in a performance and result well below ability and expectation. Sacking Stajcic was never about giving the team the best possible chance to perform, it was an exercise in vanity and ego, and likely to distract from the FFA’s own flaws. Let’s note the men’s team is at their lowest ebb in decades and the youth teams often fail to qualify for World Cups and Olympics, and now we have the women’s team go backwards. In a way, the Matildas’ failure at France 2019 is justice for the treachery of the FFA. Such selfish and despicable actions should never be rewarded.

Finally…

Overall, it was a great World Cup. USA won for the second time in a row and the fourth time overall, and showed their class throughout and handled Netherlands quite comfortably in the final for their 2-0 win. Most notable from the tournament is the Europeans have really developed and dominated, with the quarter finals featuring seven of them: Norway, England, France, Italy, Netherlands, Germany and Sweden. The standard has improved too, notably with the goal-keepers. In the early days of women’s football they were an embarrassment.

It’s a shame the American success wasn’t as unifying as it could be due to Megan Rapinoe’s unsavoury antics, notably kneeling during the anthem in 2016, the general criticism of her country, and the equal pay dispute between men and women. Curiously, that kneeling event was when Rapinoe started on the bench. She’d dare not do it on the field – restricted at the World Cup to simply not singing – and no doubt was told at the time she’d be booted off the team if there’s a repeat episode. After all, this is the USA national team. It represents the country and its people. If you don’t respect that, get out. If she was really passionate about diversity, she’d not be playing soccer anyway. One look at the American team and it looks more whiter than the Republican Party and that many come from privileged backgrounds. As for equal pay, she can start with all players in her own team and domestic competition earning the same. They do the same work, the same training, so why not? No doubt she’ll respond market forces and her value dictate her higher salary. Bingo. Same goes when trying to compare a Rapinoe to a Ronaldo, or the women’s World Cup to the men’s.

The Video Assistant Referee was highly visible in this World Cup, and while there was some minor controversy about decisions, this was more due to FIFA’s stricter guidelines on handballs and trips regarding penalties, than any wrong decisions made. Overall, it worked. Probably the area to rethink is offsides let go, and often only called once the player offside eventually touches the ball. This can causes players, notably defenders, run for the ball for no reason. Personally, the line referee needs to signal of a potential offside, especially an obvious one, so the players don’t waste their energy. If it’s not obvious, you let the game go and only check if a goal is scored, as is has become practice now. Ensuring goal-keepers don’t leave their line before a penalty kick is taken is another great use of VAR. It’s been an area of cheating for decades in the game, and it should have been long stamped out. Bravo to FIFA for actually doing good things for the game, and to the women for an excellent tournament.

Results

Group

Australia 1 – Kerr 22′
Italy 2 – Bonansea 56′, 90+5′

Australia 3 – Foord 45+1′, Logarzo 58′, Monica 66′ (OG)
Brazil 2 – Marta 27′ (PK), Cristiane 38′

Jamaica 1 – Solaun 49′
Australia 4 – Kerr 11′, 42′, 69′, 83′

Round of 16

Norway 1 – Herlovsen 31′
Australia 1 – Kellond-Knight 83′
(Norway won 4-1 on penalties)

United Arab Emirates 2019 – Asian Cup Review

Posted on February 26, 2019 by Admin

26 February 2019

The Asian Cup of 2019, held in the United Arab Emirates, came and went without much fanfare, as seemingly much of Socceroos in recent tournament appearances have been. An opening group game loss to Jordan 1-0, a 3-0 win over the far inferior Palestine in the second game, and a scratchy 3-2 win in the final game against Syria, didn’t inspire much hope that things would change this tournament. Indeed, it took penalties to overcome Uzbekistan after teams couldn’t score in 120 minutes, before elimination 1-0 to the UAE in the quarter finals.

Qatar win the 2019 Asian Cup in the United Arab Emirates, beating Japan 3-1 in the final. Image: the-afc.com

Possession of 73% for 3 shots on goal against 4 for Jordan typified much of the Australia’s performance, both in the UAE and in recent years. While it might look nice, this “keepings off” style has always been a coward’s way of playing. Ultimately it’s about results with the ball, and Jordan showed Australia how it’s done. Although Australia was a bit unlucky, and there definitely should have been a penalty in the first half, it was a well deserved win by Jordan and we were simply out-smarted (another reoccurring theme these days). The one salvation is the Socceroos lost to Korea in 2015 and won the Asian Cup. With 24 teams in this edition, it means 4 points from Palestine and Syria would likely be enough. A reminder: Tom Rogic still can’t shoot.

The response to the 1-0 loss to Jordan as being an embarrassment was an embarrassment in itself. Facts are that Jordan are a decent side, played disciplined football, while Australia lacks quality and is too obsessed about looking good. Forget the crap about styles and play the opponent. This isn’t figure skating. Then Palestine comes along, and how quickly it changes. Australia were 2-0 up at half time and commentators were inexplicable at describing the difference between this game and Jordan. It was simple: one team was Palestine, the other was Jordan. Palestine are effectively the Jordan D-team so Australia should be dominating. While they did that to a degree, that the third and final goal came so late was a concern. Australia again seemed to lack ideas with the ball and should have scored more. Overall a good result, with hopes to improve further against Syria, where only a draw was required to feel safe.

In the final group game against Syria, it seems two wrongs do make a right when it comes to penalties. One was a penalty and not given, while the other one was clearly not a penalty and was given. You suspect the referee was told of his first half error and try atone for it in the second half. Finally Rogic actually hits a shot to secure the win. 3-2 a fair result as the Socceroos dominated chances.

The round of 16 match against Uzbekistan was only notable for the comprehensive 4-2 win in the penalty shootout after the game ended with the score 0-0. If Australia had such clinical finishing during the actual game that they did during the shootout, then life wouldn’t be so difficult for them. Overall, they performed a tad better than Uzbekistan on the night so deserved to progress.

In the quarter final against the UAE, it was a deja vu of the match against Jordan. Dominate the game, dominate possession, waste chances, give away possession, concede a goal through a mistake (a poor backpass), cannot recover. Ironically, the UAE goal originated from a successful backpass by them, which the goal-keeper launched forward. The 1-0 loss was so predictable and a sad realisation, at the completion of this tournament, the team isn’t good enough. Even worse, there’s no signs of any improvement, and it’s doubtful results would have been any better even if the team’s best player, Aaron Mooy, wasn’t out injured before the tournament. The World Cup will expand to 48 teams for 2026. Australia will want it brought forward by four years the way things are going.

Qatar won the tournament with a superb display. As hosts for the 2022 World Cup, they’ll want to perform on the pitch, and if this Asian Cup is any indication, they should be competitive. They never conceded until the final against Japan and scored some cracking goals. Against Japan, they dominated the opening half with two great goals, and then held out to win 3-1. There was a bit of controversy about their third goal, whether the handball for a penalty was intentional or not. FIFA are moving away from this spurious concept, as intent can never be known. It was a clear handball and prevented Qatar to further attack the ball after it was headed towards goal, so a definite penalty. It wasn’t a blatant foul, so the yellow card was wrong. If you want to add intent into the handball rule, then it’s only for disciplinary action, not the infringement itself.

Overall, it was an enjoyable Asian Cup, and it was pleasing to see plenty of people in attendance. The expansion to 24 teams meant group games were kept alive much longer, and we saw unfamiliar faces, not only in the tournament, through to the knockout phase too. Kyrgyzstan lost 3-2 to the UAE in extra time in their round of 16 clash, while Vietnam reached the quarter finals before narrowly losing 1-0 to Japan. India were the highlight on the first main day of group matches when demolishing Thailand, 4-1. Losses to UAE (2-0) and Bahrain (1-0) meant they finished last in their group. So much for the theory that the first game is the most important to win. It’s always about total points collected, not when you collect them.

Melbourne Cup 2018 – Preview and Review!

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Admin

5 November 2018

With another Winx blitz over, this time her fourth Cox Plate in a row, the Melbourne Cup now grabs our attention, as it rightfully should. It is our biggest race, and the nation will be far more fixated over it than Winx’s record breaking feats.

Speaking of Winx’s feats, there’s much chatter about whether she’s the greatest horse of all time. While four Cox Plates is unprecedented, so is three Melbourne Cups as performed by Makybe Diva, and personally that is a superior achievement. The Melbourne Cup is a handicap, and winning it twice has proved super tough. Only 5 horse have done it since its inception in 1861 while there’s been 14 repeat Cox Plate winners since 1922.

Does that make Makybe Diva Australia’s best horse ever? No, she only had one stellar year, which culminated in her third Melbourne Cup. Winx has been unbeaten for more than 3 years, for a total of 29 race wins in a row, her most recent being that fourth Cox Plate. Still, that’s not enough. For me it’s Black Caviar. Never beaten in her career of 25 races, I rate her the best ever (in my lifetime) for her pure domination and higher quality of opposition. Time and time again I was in awe of her when watching her races. I rarely get that feeling from Winx, while the Diva only managed a bit of it in her final year.

On to the Cup…

Rekindling wins the 2017 Melbourne Cup

I’m still trying to get a big win since my double hit in 2010 and 2011 after missing out yet again last year. Most people did, as Rekindling was somewhat a surprise winner. An international visitor, he epitomised the dilemma with them when they have their first Australian run in the Cup itself. One or two will run well; most will flop. Since the internationals started arriving in 1993, Rekindling was only the second such runner to win. The first being Vintage Crop in 1993. It remains an advantage to see them run in Australia beforehand before taking the plunge on them. It’s my golden rule that I’ll still keep until results prove otherwise. Other rules include look for form, look for class, look for ability to run the distance, look past previous Melbourne Cup runners that failed.

Another more recent rule, or guideline, is be suspicious of the Caulfield Cup form. It’s been a woeful predictor in recent years. Also, the Japanese horses are best to avoid. Other than the one-two with Delta Blues and Pop Rock on debut in 2006, they’ve stunk!

01 Best Solution $12

Won the Caulfield Cup. Didn’t get a penalty. It’s still the Caulfield Cup. None have completed the double since 2001. The one positive is German horses do quite well, even when they’re a distance doubt like him, and he’s won his last four races.

Result: 8th Missed the start, and was then hampered by The Cliffsofmoher breaking down. Would have been much closer otherwise, so a decent effort for the Caulfield Cup winner that was unknown over the distance.

02 The Cliffsofmoher $17

The name alone puts me off. Second in the Caulfield Cup so if want you use that race as a guide, the best solution is to stick with the horse that beat it.

Result: DNF Sad result breaking a shoulder, unfortunately these things happen. While it provokes the usual hysterical calls to ban horse-racing, if you want to really act on perceived torture, you’d end the pet industry in an instant. Some of the torture that goes on in that industry is unimaginably reprehensible.

03 Magic Circle $8

First time international runner, whose last two races were demolition wins in Europe. May was his last race, so against back to that dilemma of whether he’ll fire. The stable brought Mount Athos twice, who performed well, so that’s a guide they have a good formula in place.

Result: 16th The only excuse you could say was his last run was in May. Most of the other internationals had run in August before coming to Australia. Otherwise, it was the usual flop you expect from internationals.

04 Chestnut Coat $61

Japanese horse that didn’t do much in the Caulfield Cup. Sayonara.

Result: 14th As expected.

05 Muntahaa $12

International runner who won the Ebor in York. That race hasn’t been a great guide to the Melbourne Cup. A tricky one, as he won it impressively. Apparently there’s been a hiccup in the preparation too, which is always a concern.

Result: 9th Ran to form.

06 Sound Check $34

Shocking Caulfield Cup run. A positive is he has form around Best Solution and won at the distance in Germany.

Result: 18th A reality check. Flopped in Caulfield Cup, flopped in Melbourne Cup.

07 Who Shot Thebarman $34

Fourth attempt, and now a 10 year old. Sorry.

Result: 17th As expected.

08 Ace High $61

Victoria Derby winner of last year who seems out of form.

Result: 20th As expected.

09 Marmelo $14

International that ran in the Cup last year and failed. They’re trying it as a first run this time, as distinct from using the Caulfield Cup as preparation like last year. Pass.

Result: 2nd Super effort, and looked the winner until Cross Counter arrived. Well done to the team for trying a fresh approach after last year’s failure.

10 Avilius $12

Won the Bart Cummings, as Almandin did in 2016. Didn’t do it as impressively, and didn’t do much in the Cox Plate, and is a bit of a doubt at the distance. Won is last four before the Cox Plate, and as they say, winning form is good form.

Result: 22nd Only excuse is he was badly hampered by The Cliffsofmoher breaking down.

11 Yucatan $6

Dominant win in the Herbert Power and has been a favourite since. As they say, seeing is believing.

Result: 11th Horrible result. Simply didn’t run it out.

12 Auvray $101

Lacks form and class.

Result: 21st As expected.

13 Finche $23

An international that plodded into third in a weak Geelong Cup.

Result: 4th Super effort considering the average preparation race.

14 Red Cardinal $34

Ran last year and failed. Will fail again.

Result: 23rd & last Failed again.

15 Vengeur Masque $81

Not good enough.

Result: 15th As expected.

16 Ventura Storm $34

Not to the required standard and flopped last year. Won the Moonee Valley Cup in his last run if that helps.

Result: 10th OK result; didn’t run the distance.

17 Prince Of Arran $18

Qualified by winning the Lexus Stakes on Saturday. Internationals don’t do race so quickly in succession, Lexus winners don’t often do well unless they have dominant wins (think Shocking in 2009), and he was smashed by Yucatan in the Herbert Power.

Result: 3rd Led into the straight and looked the winner until the two late runners. A surprise result considering he had to run on Saturday to qualify and often this quick back-up destroys the chances of internationals. Without that run he might have gone even better.

18 Nakeeta $101

Ran fourth last year. In poorer form this year so it’s a no.

Result: 12th As expected.

19 Sir Charles Road $81

No chance.

Result: 7th Capitalised with a good result due to so many other favoured horses not firing.

20 Zacada $81

Lack of form and class.

Result: 13th As expected.

21 Runaway $41

Won the Geelong Cup. It’s not a good guide other than to verify a quality international has acclimatised, as per Americain and Dunaden in 2010 and 2011.

Result: 19th As expected.

22 Youngstar $15

Caulfield Cup flop. The only mare in the race, and their general poor record is against her too.

Result: 6th Didn’t quite run it out.

23 Cross Counter $9

Nice wins in England before arriving, and a delicious light weight. Again, it’s that dilemma of whether he’s settled.

Result: 1st In hindsight, as expected! Good form and a low weight. Distance was the only issue as he hadn’t won beyond 2800 metres. Do that, and be able to reproduce the form in Australia, you win.

24 Rostropovich $23

Didn’t do much in the Cox Plate, and other than for the major weight drop, he’d be a total write off, not a partial one.

Result: 5th Looked a possible chance to win before others overtook him. A decent result for a horse that didn’t seem to do quite enough in the Cox Plate.

SELECTIONS

No surprises here if you note any of the “experts” giving their tips. I’m all over Yucatan like a giant meteor smashing into the planet. It’s my major bet while my smaller bet will be on Magic Circle. Interesting story is that when I was first taken to races as a youngster, a horse called Magic Tower was always so successful for me. I remember winning $6 on a 50c place bet, and that was so much money back then! So Magic Circle provides a bit of nostalgia. To complete my box trifecta and first-four I’ll add Cross Counter, Best Solution and possibly Avilius.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!

THE RACE

A bit of an upside-down race, with the lesser favoured of the internationals and some mild outsiders doing well. Cross Counter was my third pick, and was a spectacular winner with a late charge down the outside to overhaul Marmelo. Marmelo flopped last year, so that broke one of the guidelines to ignore previous failures. Although, as mentioned in the preview above, a different strategy was tried this year by running him fresh in the Melbourne Cup rather than using the Caulfield Cup as preparation. Facts are many horses, particularly Europeans, do perform well fresh, which, at a minimum, is 3 weeks between runs. The Caulfield Cup is 17 days prior.

Cross Counter wins the 2018 Melbourne Cup from Marmelo and Prince Of Arran

Other guidelines remained true, like the new one to ignore the Japanese. The Caulfield Cup again proved an unreliable form gauge, even though Best Solution had excuses. The distance rule is an interesting one. The big favourite, Yucatan, didn’t run it out. Many horses are untried over the distance of 3200 metres, including the winner, so it can be hit or miss. Cross Counter at least had won over 2800 metres, so that was close enough. Yucatan and Best Solution had only won over 2400, with Yucatan’s other two wins being over 2012 and 1609 metres. He really was a distance doubt so much so that he warranted some sort of skepticism. I guess that awesome Herbert Power win clouded the minds of many. Finally, horses running in the Cup without a preparation run in Australia, while Cross Counter and Marmelo excelled, Magic Circle (the other big favourite), Muntahaa and Nakeeta, failed.

A new rule is to look to European 3 year olds. They are actually 3 and a half year olds by Australian time so have that extra bit of maturity while benefitting from a lighter weight allocation that 3 year olds get. They need to be progressive and in good form too. Last year one won in Rekindling, while this year they were first and fifth.

The big trifecta I’ve been trying to land for years now was another wipeout. I had six horses going in it – Yucatan, Magic Circle, Cross Counter, Best Solution, Avilius and Muntahaa – and only Cross Counter did anything. Best Solution was next best in eighth. There’s always next year!

RESULTS

23 Cross Counter $10
9 Marmelo $12
17 Prince Of Arran $23
13 Finche $13
24 Rostropovich $18

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Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Review – Grading Australia’s Performance

Swimming: 9 gold, 3 silver, 8 bronze

Rowing: 2, 0, 2

Cycling: 0, 0, 2

Athletics: 0, 1, 2

Basketball: 0, 0, 1

Canoe Slalom: 1, 0, 1

Canoe Sprint: 1, 0, 0

Equestrian: 0, 1, 1

Football: 0, 0, 0

Sailing: 2, 0, 0

Tennis: 0, 0, 1

New Events: 2, 0, 1

Overall: 17 gold, 7 silver, 22 bronze

Best Medals

Melbourne Cup 2020 – Preview and Review

Melbourne Cup 2019 – Preview & Review

France 2019 – Women’s World Cup Review

Results

United Arab Emirates 2019 – Asian Cup Review

Melbourne Cup 2018 – Preview and Review!