Melbourne Cup 2018 – Preview and Review!

5 November 2018

With another Winx blitz over, this time her fourth Cox Plate in a row, the Melbourne Cup now grabs our attention, as it rightfully should. It is our biggest race, and the nation will be far more fixated over it than Winx’s record breaking feats.

Speaking of Winx’s feats, there’s much chatter about whether she’s the greatest horse of all time. While four Cox Plates is unprecedented, so is three Melbourne Cups as performed by Makybe Diva, and personally that is a superior achievement. The Melbourne Cup is a handicap, and winning it twice has proved super tough. Only 5 horse have done it since its inception in 1861 while there’s been 14 repeat Cox Plate winners since 1922.

Does that make Makybe Diva Australia’s best horse ever? No, she only had one stellar year, which culminated in her third Melbourne Cup. Winx has been unbeaten for more than 3 years, for a total of 29 race wins in a row, her most recent being that fourth Cox Plate. Still, that’s not enough. For me it’s Black Caviar. Never beaten in her career of 25 races, I rate her the best ever (in my lifetime) for her pure domination and higher quality of opposition. Time and time again I was in awe of her when watching her races. I rarely get that feeling from Winx, while the Diva only managed a bit of it in her final year.

On to the Cup…

rekindling-mcup2017.jpg

Rekindling wins the 2017 Melbourne Cup

I’m still trying to get a big win since my double hit in 2010 and 2011 after missing out yet again last year. Most people did, as Rekindling was somewhat a surprise winner. An international visitor, he epitomised the dilemma with them when they have their first Australian run in the Cup itself. One or two will run well; most will flop. Since the internationals started arriving in 1993, Rekindling was only the second such runner to win. The first being Vintage Crop in 1993. It remains an advantage to see them run in Australia beforehand before taking the plunge on them. It’s my golden rule that I’ll still keep until results prove otherwise. Other rules include look for form, look for class, look for ability to run the distance, look past previous Melbourne Cup runners that failed.

Another more recent rule, or guideline, is be suspicious of the Caulfield Cup form. It’s been a woeful predictor in recent years. Also, the Japanese horses are best to avoid. Other than the one-two with Delta Blues and Pop Rock on debut in 2006, they’ve stunk!

01 Best Solution $12

Won the Caulfield Cup. Didn’t get a penalty. It’s still the Caulfield Cup. None have completed the double since 2001. The one positive is German horses do quite well, even when they’re a distance doubt like him, and he’s won his last four races.

Result: 8th Missed the start, and was then hampered by The Cliffsofmoher breaking down. Would have been much closer otherwise, so a decent effort for the Caulfield Cup winner that was unknown over the distance.

02 The Cliffsofmoher $17

The name alone puts me off. Second in the Caulfield Cup so if want you use that race as a guide, the best solution is to stick with the horse that beat it.

Result: DNF Sad result breaking a shoulder, unfortunately these things happen. While it provokes the usual hysterical calls to ban horse-racing, if you want to really act on perceived torture, you’d end the pet industry in an instant. Some of the torture that goes on in that industry is unimaginably reprehensible.

03 Magic Circle $8

First time international runner, whose last two races were demolition wins in Europe. May was his last race, so against back to that dilemma of whether he’ll fire. The stable brought Mount Athos twice, who performed well, so that’s a guide they have a good formula in place.

Result: 16th The only excuse you could say was his last run was in May. Most of the other internationals had run in August before coming to Australia. Otherwise, it was the usual flop you expect from internationals.

04 Chestnut Coat $61

Japanese horse that didn’t do much in the Caulfield Cup. Sayonara.

Result: 14th As expected.

05 Muntahaa $12

International runner who won the Ebor in York. That race hasn’t been a great guide to the Melbourne Cup. A tricky one, as he won it impressively. Apparently there’s been a hiccup in the preparation too, which is always a concern.

Result: 9th Ran to form.

06 Sound Check $34

Shocking Caulfield Cup run. A positive is he has form around Best Solution and won at the distance in Germany.

Result: 18th A reality check. Flopped in Caulfield Cup, flopped in Melbourne Cup.

07 Who Shot Thebarman $34

Fourth attempt, and now a 10 year old. Sorry.

Result: 17th As expected.

08 Ace High $61

Victoria Derby winner of last year who seems out of form.

Result: 20th As expected.

09 Marmelo $14

International that ran in the Cup last year and failed. They’re trying it as a first run this time, as distinct from using the Caulfield Cup as preparation like last year. Pass.

Result: 2nd Super effort, and looked the winner until Cross Counter arrived. Well done to the team for trying a fresh approach after last year’s failure.

10 Avilius $12

Won the Bart Cummings, as Almandin did in 2016. Didn’t do it as impressively, and didn’t do much in the Cox Plate, and is a bit of a doubt at the distance. Won is last four before the Cox Plate, and as they say, winning form is good form.

Result: 22nd Only excuse is he was badly hampered by The Cliffsofmoher breaking down.

11 Yucatan $6

Dominant win in the Herbert Power and has been a favourite since. As they say, seeing is believing.

Result: 11th Horrible result. Simply didn’t run it out.

12 Auvray $101

Lacks form and class.

Result: 21st As expected.

13 Finche $23

An international that plodded into third in a weak Geelong Cup.

Result: 4th Super effort considering the average preparation race.

14 Red Cardinal $34

Ran last year and failed. Will fail again.

Result: 23rd & last Failed again.

15 Vengeur Masque $81

Not good enough.

Result: 15th As expected.

16 Ventura Storm $34

Not to the required standard and flopped last year. Won the Moonee Valley Cup in his last run if that helps.

Result: 10th OK result; didn’t run the distance.

17 Prince Of Arran $18

Qualified by winning the Lexus Stakes on Saturday. Internationals don’t do race so quickly in succession, Lexus winners don’t often do well unless they have dominant wins (think Shocking in 2009), and he was smashed by Yucatan in the Herbert Power.

Result: 3rd Led into the straight and looked the winner until the two late runners. A surprise result considering he had to run on Saturday to qualify and often this quick back-up destroys the chances of internationals. Without that run he might have gone even better.

18 Nakeeta $101

Ran fourth last year. In poorer form this year so it’s a no.

Result: 12th As expected.

19 Sir Charles Road $81

No chance.

Result: 7th Capitalised with a good result due to so many other favoured horses not firing.

20 Zacada $81

Lack of form and class.

Result: 13th As expected.

21 Runaway $41

Won the Geelong Cup. It’s not a good guide other than to verify a quality international has acclimatised, as per Americain and Dunaden in 2010 and 2011.

Result: 19th As expected.

22 Youngstar $15

Caulfield Cup flop. The only mare in the race, and their general poor record is against her too.

Result: 6th Didn’t quite run it out.

23 Cross Counter $9

Nice wins in England before arriving, and a delicious light weight. Again, it’s that dilemma of whether he’s settled.

Result: 1st In hindsight, as expected! Good form and a low weight. Distance was the only issue as he hadn’t won beyond 2800 metres. Do that, and be able to reproduce the form in Australia, you win.

24 Rostropovich $23

Didn’t do much in the Cox Plate, and other than for the major weight drop, he’d be a total write off, not a partial one.

Result: 5th Looked a possible chance to win before others overtook him. A decent result for a horse that didn’t seem to do quite enough in the Cox Plate. 

SELECTIONS

No surprises here if you note any of the “experts” giving their tips. I’m all over Yucatan like a giant meteor smashing into the planet. It’s my major bet while my smaller bet will be on Magic Circle. Interesting story is that when I was first taken to races as a youngster, a horse called Magic Tower was always so successful for me. I remember winning $6 on a 50c place bet, and that was so much money back then! So Magic Circle provides a bit of nostalgia. To complete my box trifecta and first-four I’ll add Cross Counter, Best Solution and possibly Avilius.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!


THE RACE

A bit of an upside-down race, with the lesser favoured of the internationals and some mild outsiders doing well. Cross Counter was my third pick, and was a spectacular winner with a late charge down the outside to overhaul Marmelo. Marmelo flopped last year, so that broke one of the guidelines to ignore previous failures. Although, as mentioned in the preview above, a different strategy was tried this year by running him fresh in the Melbourne Cup rather than using the Caulfield Cup as preparation. Facts are many horses, particularly Europeans, do perform well fresh, which, at a minimum, is 3 weeks between runs. The Caulfield Cup is 17 days prior.

Cross Counter wins the 2018 Melbourne Cup from Marmelo and Prince Of Arran - Review

Cross Counter wins the 2018 Melbourne Cup from Marmelo and Prince Of Arran

Other guidelines remained true, like the new one to ignore the Japanese. The Caulfield Cup again proved an unreliable form gauge, even though Best Solution had excuses. The distance rule is an interesting one. The big favourite, Yucatan, didn’t run it out. Many horses are untried over the distance of 3200 metres, including the winner, so it can be hit or miss. Cross Counter at least had won over 2800 metres, so that was close enough. Yucatan and Best Solution had only won over 2400, with Yucatan’s other two wins being over 2012 and 1609 metres. He really was a distance doubt so much so that he warranted some sort of skepticism. I guess that awesome Herbert Power win clouded the minds of many. Finally, horses running in the Cup without a preparation run in Australia, while Cross Counter and Marmelo excelled, Magic Circle (the other big favourite), Muntahaa and Nakeeta, failed.

A new rule is to look to European 3 year olds. They are actually 3 and a half year olds by Australian time so have that extra bit of maturity while benefitting from a lighter weight allocation that 3 year olds get. They need to be progressive and in good form too. Last year one won in Rekindling, while this year they were first and fifth.

The big trifecta I’ve been trying to land for years now was another wipeout. I had six horses going in it – Yucatan, Magic Circle, Cross Counter, Best Solution, Avilius and Muntahaa – and only Cross Counter did anything. Best Solution was next best in eighth. There’s always next year!

RESULTS

23 Cross Counter $10
9 Marmelo $12
17 Prince Of Arran $23
13 Finche $13
24 Rostropovich $18

 

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Russia 2018 – World Cup Preview, Predictions & Australia’s chances

15 June 2018

“I will do it my own way.” With those words at his initial press conference, out went the old ways of previous coach Ange Postecoglou, and in come the new ways of coach Bert van Marwijk. So much for changing the landscape, or leaving a legacy, as was Postcoglou’s mission. It was always a fool’s policy that Postecoglou set, and actively encouraged by elitists in the media, that a national team can be moulded into a permanent style. National teams are representative, meaning player options are often limited, not bought or recruited from anywhere, so strengths across the field can vary through the years.

FIFA World Cup Russia 2018 Logo

With that, it was also pleasing to hear van Marwijk say “it’s important we play in a way that fits the players, and “you cannot play in a way that players cannot do.” Australia struggled through World Cup qualifying primarily because of Postecoglou’s enforced doctrine. The possession and pressing game, and always playing out from the back, was exploited, with the leaky defence never to be fixed, and experimentation with team selection never ending.

In the four internationals van Marwijk has controlled the Socceroos since his appointment late January, things are slowly improving. A 4-1 loss in Norway was followed by a 0-0 against a quality Colombian team in London, then a 4-0 win over Czechia in St Polten, Austria. Even though Czechia appeared in holiday mode and Colombia had plenty of chances to win easily (including a penalty saved and hitting the post twice), Australia looked much better on the ball in both of those games, and finished their World Cup preparations with a 2-1 over Hungary in Budapest. That was strange game in which all goals came from mistakes: Hungary’s goal-keeper fluffed a shot from range by Daniel Arzani, Hungary equalised after Trent Sainsbury’s headed back-pass went straight into the net, while Hungary responded with an own goal of their own.

Speaking of Daniel Arzani, the 19 year old was a shock inclusion into the World Cup squad. Barely with 6 months of club football under him at Melbourne City, he’s now threatening for a starting spot in Russia. His inclusion has shown a preference towards the trickier, speedier and more skilful players in van Marwijk’s teams – evidence he sees (realistically) that the overall playing strength is not at the required level to take on these pedigreed World Cup teams head on, so he’ll rely more on individual brilliance and a counter attacking game. As he says, play to the players’ strengths, not force something unusual on them or beyond their capabilities. If he can sort out the defensive frailties further, then we could in for a surprise result or two.

Can Australia reach the knockout phase?

If you take a direct form line from Russia’s 5-0 demolition of Saudi Arabia in the opening game, it won’t be easy. Saudi Arabia, with van Marwijk at the helm, qualified ahead of Australia. Van Marwijk then quit after negotiations to renew his contract broke down, and now Australia is lucky to have secured his services for the tournament. Although, Australia handled the Saudis quite comfortably in qualifying, are arguably a more talented team, and now have a more astute and flexible coach than previously.

France is Australia’s first match, and while the French are notoriously slow to start a tournament, no risks will be taken. Remember, it doesn’t matter when you score your points to qualify for the knockout phase, as long as you score them. With France likely to beat Denmark and Peru as well, essentially it will come down to those matches. A narrow loss to France would be sufficient, and then it’s a matter of trying to gain 4 points from the other two matches, or 6 points to guarantee it.

Denmark qualified relatively easily behind Poland in a rather weak Group E, and then disposed of Ireland in the playoffs. They look the standard, solid Scandinavian team – teams Australia generally have handled well in the past. Peru was South America’s fifth best team and qualified thanks to a 2-0 playoff over New Zealand. Even with a draw (or loss) to Denmark, the fate of Australia is likely to come down to that match, and while Australia generally struggles against South American teams, as they say in the classics, if you can’t beat Peru, you don’t deserve to be in the knockout phase.

World Cup Predictions

It’s difficult to have much confidence in Australia progressing unless those defensive problems are fixed. Scoring could be a problem too if “no goal scorers” is the second favourite at $6.50 to be Australia’s top scorer. Tomi Juric is favourite at $6. Best case scenario to qualify is a 50/50 proposition. If Australia qualified for the round of 16, the likely opponent would be Argentina. Iceland, Croatia and Nigeria are the other options.

As for the World Cup winner, the draw is always the best guide, along with general form, especially through qualifying. France, Spain, Portugal and Argentina are in the top half, so some will be eliminated before the latter knockout stages. In the lower half, Germany (who won all games in qualifying) and Brazil will steer clear of each other if they win their respective groups, while Belgium is the likely spoiler, and it would be great to see a new team win. While I certainly will be hoping for the Belgians, the tournament seems set up so well for Germany to go two in a row, with Brazil their likely opponents in the final. Given the 7-1 thrashing the Germans handed Brazil in the semi finals four years ago, a repeat match-up would be quite an exciting prospect, even if both teams have won their fair share of World Cup spoils over the decades.

Australia’s Schedule (AET)

20:00 16 June France vs Australia
22:00 21 June Denmark vs Australia
00:00 27 June Australia vs Peru (Tuesday night)

Australia’s World Cup Squad

Goalkeepers: Brad Jones, Mat Ryan, Danny Vukovic

Defenders: Aziz Behich, Milos Degenek, Matt Jurman, Mark Milligan, James Meredith, Josh Risdon, Trent Sainsbury

Midfielders: Jackson Irvine, Mile Jedinak, Massimo Luongo, Aaron Mooy, Tom Rogic

Forwards: Daniel Arzani, Tim Cahill, Tomi Juric, Robbie Kruse, Mat Leckie, Jamie Maclaren, Andrew Nabbout, Dimitri Petratos

Melbourne Cup 2017 – Preview and Review!

6 November 2017

With Winx such the dominant headline maker throughout the spring, the Melbourne Cup has suddenly crept up on us. There hasn’t been much thought about it – until now with the final jostling for positions in the race. On first inspection of the field, it was a case of “who” for about half the field. After a few preview shows and reading the newspaper,  suddenly the horses are like old friends and excitement is mounting.

Almandin out-lasts Heartbreak City to win the 2016 Melbourne Cup

Almandin out-lasts Heartbreak City to win the 2016 Melbourne Cup

Time for my annual selections, and hopefully they’re much better since I started posting them on this blog. Ironically they’ve been poor, even despite a few outsiders winning like Green Moon in 2012 and Prince of Penzance in 2015. My last two big wins were 2010 and 2011 with Americain and Dunaden. When I say big, I mean BIG!

Also, the Melbourne Cup is evolving. The international horses have firmly taken hold, whereas before 2010, they’d be regarded as scratchings. Even then, 2010 and 2011 were both French horses, while Protectionist in 2014 was German, so it’s fair enough to be skeptical of British horses. Even the Irish ones are in a significant drought, with Media Puzzle in 2002 the last winner. Also it’s worthwhile to be skeptical of international horses that haven’t had a preparation run in Australia. Since Vintage Crop in 1993, almost 100 first-timers have run and failed, mostly abysmally. Fifteen placings by 12 individual horses is the closest they’ve come.

Speaking of skepticism, the Caulfield Cup continues its poor guide to the Cup. Whereas once it was a pivotal guide, now it’s almost useless. The last Melbourne Cup winner to even run in it was Delta Blues in 2006, who finished third. It’s become almost a b-grade race full of horses that can’t get into the Melbourne Cup (due to proliferation of international runners), while horses targeting the Melbourne Cup don’t want to risk a penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup. Consequently organisers are removing that condition, and will raise prize money to make it a stronger stand-alone race of its own. It’s only possible value these days is noting the preparation run of any international horses.

The Field & Current Odds

1) Hartnell $26

Third last year when in much better form so easy to ignore. He’s a class horse, and they’re trying a new approach to run him fresher in the Cup, so a win wouldn’t surprise.

Result: Didn’t quite run it out last year, and in weaker form this year, was beaten a long way out. 20th

2) Almandin $9

Last year’s winner and returned to the spring with a solid win, then a poor run. Also up 5.5kg on his original handicap weight last year (4.5kg up on race weight). Repeat winners are rare so will risk it.

Result: The weight and history told. 12th

3) Humidor $10

Second to Winx in the Cox Plate and the class local horse. Running the 3200 metres is a query and he’s very temperamental and prone to over-racing. That’s enough to ignore him.

Result: Failed at distance as expected. 19th

4) Tiberian $26

The son of a “teaser”. These are horses that get mares “into the mood” before the stallion arrives to do his job. Studs give the teasers a few shots at the end of the season to keep them interested, and occasionally something is produced than can run. It would be remarkable if that could be a Melbourne Cup winner. Tiberian has solid form so I might have something “small” on him. Otherwise, as an international that hasn’t run here, better to ignore.

Result: Started a long run 1400 metres from home, cruised up heading into the straight and only battled to the line. Disappointing. 7th

5) Marmelo $8

An international than ran home well in the Caulfield Cup. That proves he’s settled in, and with his obvious class and Hugh Bowman, Australia’s best jockey on board, is one of the ones to beat.

Result: A nice run just off the lead and then could only battle to the line. Another disappointment. 9th

6) Red Cardinal $18

Last start flopped; before that great. Had he a preparation run here, he’d be favourite. Do you want to risk it? He could be the one that finally breaks the fist-timer international hoodoo. Has last year’s winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy on board. He should cope with the widest barrier of 24, having done so (if I recall accurately) in 2000 with Brew. The widest is not too bad as it gives you a choice to drop back. If you’re a few horses in, then those out wide can dictate your settling position.

Result: Got into a good position and then, like Tiberian and Marmelo, battle to the line. 11th

7) Johannes Vermeer $10

I always liked this until a few others overtook him. I might still return. Third in the Caulfield Cup if that matters and solid in previous runs, with his only doubt being untested over the distance. These days, a distance doubt is a big doubt.

Result: Sprinted clear and looked the winner to be pipped 50 metres out. The jockey said the horse was going so fast he was surprised anything else could go better. 2nd

8) Bondi Beach $61

Previous Melboune Cup runs 16th and 13th. Says it all.

Result: Failed twice before, failed again. 22nd

9) Max Dynamite $15

Second two years ago and arguably should have won. Was then injured and has only run 4 times, in low grade races, since. He’s a leap of faith.

Result: Couldn’t sprint with the other two. A fabulous effort nonetheless for such a horse light on runs and up in age. 3rd

10) Ventura Storm $34

Disappointing in the Caulfield Cup. Pass.

Result: Disappointing in the Melbourne Cup. Couldn’t run the distance and out-classed. 21st

11) Who Shot Thebarman

Scratched

12) Wicklow Brave $61

Failed last year and in poorer form.

Result: Got some money this time by sneaking into the top 10. Again it proves one of the golden Melbourne Cup rules of failed before means fail again. 10th

13) Big Duke $19

Probably out-classed.

Result: Over-achieved. Class did tell ultimately. 4th

14) US Army Ranger $61

International runner in poor recent form and no preparation run. No.

Result: Never a factor as expected. 18th

15) Boom Time $31

Caulfield Cup winner at $31. Says a lot about the horse and the race.

Result: Failed to run the trip and out-classed. 15th

16) Gallante $101

Previous Cup failure and out-classed.

Result: The first one beaten. 23rd

17) Libran $41

Seems out-classed. A place hope at absolute best.

Result: Ran well enough to grab some prize money. 8th

18) Nakeeta $34

A Scottish horse, so would be a great irony if it could win for Britain before an English horse does. Won “Britain’s Melbourne Cup” – the Ebor in York – which only rarely is a good guide to the Melbourne, and that’s when the winner wins impressively. Not this year. Nakeeta only snuck in. Because the Ebor is a handicap, it’s often regarded as a poor race and good horses generally ignore it.

Result: Ran on late after being left behind in the sprint. A good result overall. 5th

19) Single Gaze $41

A mare that stuck on well for second in the Caulfield Cup. Wary of both mares and the Caulfield Cup, so will pass.

Result: The jockey said the horse was flattened, was shuffled back four pairs than preferred, and never recovered. That’s always the fear with mares. 17th

20) Wall Of Fire $12

With unsuccessful attempts at both of his 3200 races, only a doubt at the distance here. An international that finished second in his preparation run in the Herbert Power, and drops 5kg for the Melbourne Cup. It’s the pattern Protectionist’s year in 2014, except he was German and Wall Of Fire is English. If it’s a slower pace, I can imagine Wall Of Fire sprinting clear, otherwise his run will end 200 metres out, or sooner.

Result: Even though he clearly didn’t run the trip, a bit better was expected. 16th

21) Thomas Hobson $20

An international without a preparation run and seems a plodder with recent runs up 4355 metres. These types typically get out-sprinted.

Result: From the same stable as Max Dynamite and Wicklow Brave, so the trainer definitely knows his stuff, and collectively the three horses won over $700,000 in prize money. Otherwise, he was always a plodder and got left behind in the sprint. Another 800 metres and he might just catch them. 6th

22) Rekindling $14

Another international without a preparation run, and he’s a 3yo too. They often struggle with the big field and hustle and bustle of a Melbourne Cup. In fact, many internationals do, which is why a preparation run is so important.

Rekindling (pink cap) wins the 2017 Melbourne Cup ahead of stablemate Johannes Vermeer.

Rekindling (pink cap) wins the 2017 Melbourne Cup ahead of stablemate Johannes Vermeer.

Result: Obviously coped with the big field and the weight difference to the older horses told in the end. In retrospect, with his good form in Europe and the lower weight, was obviously up there as one of the leading internationals. The problem is you don’t know. No preparation run and a 3yo, historically it means failure. 1st

23) Amelie’s Star $21

A mare that ran poorly in the Caulfied Cup. Yes, despite the heroics of Makybe Diva between 2003 and 2005, mares have a poor record in the Cup.

Result: Failed at distance and out-classed. 14th

24) Cismontane $51

Or “kiss my arse” as always hearing the name evokes. Yes, kiss my arse for its chances too. A Gai Waterhouse horse, and she’ll tell you it will win in a canter. Will most likely lead until being swamped heading into the straight.

Result: Despite being out-classsed, stuck on well enough. 13th

Summary

I’m locked into Marmelo. Although, if it fails, I’ll swear off the Caulfield Cup as any sort of a guide. Then it’s a toss up between Red Cardinal and Wall Of Fire. The former arguably has the best credentials and is an international without a preparation run, while the latter is only just behind on credentials and has a distance doubt. Red Cardinal will be at juicier odds so that most likely will sway me. In fourth I’ll stick with Johannes Vermeer. For an outsider, I’ll go Libran.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!


Result

So an international horse without a preparation run in Australia wins the Melbourne Cup. It’s only the second time since the first time in 1993. Overall, it was a sterile, bland Cup. Rekindling wasn’t heavily favoured even by those “in the know”, while conspicuously quiet post race. If the second and third placed horses, Johannes Vermeer or Max Dynamite, had won, things might have been different. Without trainer Joseph O’Brien beating his father Aidan O’Brien to winning the Cup, there wasn’t even an interesting story from this year’s race. The only Cup more underwhelming than this one was 2012 with Green Moon.

Melbourne Cup 2017 Race Results

Melbourne Cup 2017 Race Results. Image: news.com.au

Despite a first-up international winning, the lesson still is to largely ignore such horses. While Max Dynamite followed his second from 2 years ago, the rest mostly failed, with the next best Nakeeta in fifth. Favoured horses such as Red Cardinal and Wall Of Fire finished 11th and 16th respectively. Each year, while one or two will race well, it’s a lottery to know the exact one. The second lesson is distance. At least half the field failed to run it out. Third lesson is class. Other than Big Duke in fourth, the outsiders ran as expected. Then there’s the Caulfield Cup. While Johannes Vermeer finished third in it, again it failed to produce the winner… nor the third placed horse, nor fourth, nor fifth… all the way up to eighth. Marmelo was the next best in ninth.

Johannes Vermeer will be one to watch next year. Near winners do have a good record the following year as they are often a bit stronger and tougher and haven’t suffered a weight penalty. Unlike the winner, in this case Almandin, which is typically penalised around 4 kgs for the following year The question for Johannes Vermeer is whether a precocious lightweight will emerge. That’s why he was beaten this year.

mc17-03a

Often the more interesting fillies are the two-legged variety. Image: news.com.au

Personally it was a wipeout. Johannes Vermeer needed to win for me as I never bet place. With the likes of Marmelo, Red Cardinal, Tiberian and Wall Of Fire all failing, all my multiples went up in flames. Oh well, there’s always next year… and the year after… and the year after!

 

Preview of Australia vs Iraq & UAE – It’s a Reset

23 March 2017

Australia resumes its quest to qualify for the World Cup in Russia next year with a two games over the next 6 days. It’s Iraq in neutral Tehran tonight, with the United Arab Emirates in Sydney on Tuesday. Currently Australia is in third place on the Group B table, with only 1 point separating them from Saudia Arabia and Japan, and are firmly on target to nab one of the two top spots. With the group so even, this midway point is effectively a reset – a new block of 5 games – and with Australia playing 3 of those at home, qualification looks a formality. The other two home games are Saudi Arabia in June and Thailand in September, while the other away game is Japan in late August.

Despite this apparently comfortable position, there have been rumblings from commentators and fans alike that Australia should almost already be qualified. It actually looked like that after they won their first two games before a reality check of 3 draws followed. Two of those were away from home while the other was against Japan. Questions are being asked, is it the coach, is it the A-League, is it youth development? Whatever is, the big concern is there is a stark contrast between our expectations and reality. They no longer match.

Some names: Craig Moore, Lucas Neill, Scott Chipperfield, Luke Wilkshire, Brett Emerton, Vince Grella, Jason Culina, Mark Bresciano, Harry Kewell and Mark Viduka. On the bench you have Tim Cahill and and John Aloisi. That’s the team that faced Japan at the World Cup in Germany in 2006. Let’s look at the last Socceroos team that took the field: Matthew Spiranovic, Trent Sainsbury, Milos Degenek, Bradley Smith, Jamie MacLaren, Aaron Mooy, Tom Rogic, Mile Jedinak, Matthew Leckie and Robbie Kruise. There’s no comparison. Other than Jedinak for Culina, it’s doubtful any others would make the field in 2006. Kruise might make it as a substitute. That’s about it.

Australia is in a trough when it comes to quality of players. It’s that simple. Gone are the days when we had three Socceroos leading a top Premier League team, or several playing in Serie A; we’re lucky to have three in the top division of the major leagues right now anywhere in Europe. Most fritter around in lower divisions, or low quality Asian leagues. As much as coach Ange Postecoglou likes to boast and inspire our team can do well, this lack of quality is catching us out. Furthermore, to expect them to run rampant against Asian teams like Socceroo teams of old is misty eyed nostalgia.

It’s a time to reflect on reality. Lower our expectations and appreciate the good, tough results, like those draws away to Saudi Arabia and Thailand. Hope to snag another draw tonight against Iraq and beat the UAE on Tuesday. That will propel us sufficiently forward. Then, if it comes, celebrate qualification hard, which most likely will be that final home match against Thailand. If we can’t manage to support our team during these difficult times then we’re not supporters at all and are only setting ourselves up for a world of pain when we play the top international teams at the Confederations Cup next year and then the World Cup the year after. Potentially it won’t be pretty, and that’s both on the field and the final results.

Melbourne Cup 2016 – The Verdict

31 October 2016

Preview (scroll down for the Review)

For anyone that’s read my Melbourne Cup preview for the past few years, they’d probably think “this guy is clueless”. In a sense that’s true, because for the few years this blog has been running the predictions have been poor. While last year can be forgiven considering a 100/1 shot won, which would have been missed by anyone using rational thought, and Admire Rakti was beset by a heart problem during the 2014 race that Protectionist won, Sea Moon was a poor pick in 2013 when comparing its form against the eventual winner Fiorente, and 2012 (Green Moon) was wipeout. Before that it was hit with Dunaden (2011) and Americain (2010).

About last year’s Cup, it was a slowly run race, which not only helped Prince Of Penzance win, it hurt the chances so many others, including Fame Game from Japan, the favourite. For some trainers and even one horse, 2016 is a year of redemption.

To repeat my usual guidelines:
1) Look for horses with form at, or near, the distance of 3200m
2) Look for horses in recent form
3) Look for horses with enough class
4) Look for horses that have, or are likely to, run well  in Australia
5) Ignore horses that have failed in the Cup before

Eight horses are back from the 2015 Cup, which is an unusually high number. Theoretically, if you follow rule 5, a third of the field is disqualified.

There’s also another rule, or trend, developing: The Caulfield Cup is a rubbish form reference. No Melbourne Cup winner has come through it since Delta Blue’s third in 2006, and the last Caulfield Cup winner to win the Melbourne Cup was Ethereal in 2001. Before that was Let’s Elope in 1991. Incidentally, both were mares with a light weight. It’s become so poor because many horses either skip the race, leaving it for lower grade horses or those using it as a hit out. Only four from this year’s race will even contest the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup field of 2016

Melbourne Cup field of 2016

I’ll award each horse Yes, Maybe or No for their chance to win. (I) denotes an international visitor, (R) denotes a return runner.

01 Big Orange $14 (IR)

The best credentialled international visitor, and  fifth last year. The connections rued the slow pace last year, which is ironic considering Big Orange made the pace. They admit the error of going too slow, which saw them out-sprinted at the end. There won’t be the same mistake this year. Big Orange is a grinder so he needs a fast pace and keep sticking on. I imagine the race pattern could be similar to 2006 when Delta Blues ran ahead off a strong pace and was unable to be caught. Yes

02 Our Ivanhowe $51 (R)

Form not good enough. No.

03 Curren Mirotic $34 (I)

The only Japanese horse this year. No 9yo has ever won it (9yo by Australian measure, 8.5 in actuality) and so inconsistent with his form. At his best can win. Came a narrow second in super fast over the 3200m of Tenno Sho three starts back. Then returned an 11th and 9th in his next two starts. Will most likely lead as the unofficial pacemaker for Big Orange. (Reluctantly) Maybe.

04 Bondi Beach $9 (IR)

Ran poorly last year, so that should disqualify him. He’s been set specifically, and is a year more mature after racing last year as a 3yo. Would not be so short if not for the trainer, jockey and owner, Aiden O’Brian, Ryan Moore and Lloyd Williams, respectively. Also add a few points for the iconic Australian name itself. He’s been specifically set for the race and while many experts rate him a good chance, for me it’s a reluctant Maybe.

05 Exospheric $20 (I)

In the hands of the Freedman’s now, he’s only a recent arrival so I still class as an international in terms of analysing for this race. While he was OK in the Caulfield Cup, that race’s form history is now poor and, of course, the winner was far more impressive. No.

06 Hartnell $5 (R)

The favourite, and the best horse in terms of class and form in the race. His issue is the distance, especially that he flopped in last year’s Cup. While, like stated prior, that was an odd race being run so slowly, he’s improved vastly since then anyway. Has the look of the 2013 winner, Fiorente, who also came through the WFA races and finished second in the Cox Plate. In the 2000m Turnbull Stakes prior to that, Hartnell destroyed the eventual Caulfied Cup winner. Yes.

07 Who Shot Thebarman $34 (R)

Third two years ago was his shot at it. Class never there, and form not as good either. No.

08 Wicklow Brave $15 (I)

Trainer Willie Mullins has a knack of travelling horses here and getting them to perform. Also has Frankie Dettori on board. Arguably the pair should have won last year with Max Dynamite. Won the Irish St Leger at his last start over Order Of St George. One of the top hopes. Yes.

09 Almoonqith $21 (R)

Ran 18th last year and doubt he’s ever had the last class, and this year form not as good. No.

10 Gallante $51

Sydney Cup winner so will run the distance. Class is the issue, and recent form average. No.

11 Grand Marshal $41 (R)

Another Sydney stayer. Winning the Moonee Valley Cup last start shows his form is solid. Class the problem. No.

12 Jameka $8.50

Devastating winner of the Caulfield Cup. Like the last two horses that did the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double, is a mare with a light weight. It’s these reasons that I rate her among the top chances. Note she’s the only Australian bred horse in the field too. Named after Serena Jameka Williams, apparently because they share similarly big bums. Yes.

13 Heartbreak City $17 (I)

Last start won the Ebor Handicap, the closest Britain has to our Melbourne Cup. It’s a race not of the same standard, it hasn’t been a great form reference, and horse was well weighted. Won its previous two starts too, albeit hurdle races. Has it acclimatised too? You won’t know until the day. No.

14 Sir John Hawkwood $81

Won the Metropolitan in Sydney, which has as much relevance to the Melbourne Cup as the Bathurst 1000. Last start 10th in the Caulfield Cup. No.

15 Excess Knowledge $71 (R)

Ran OK last year to finish 7th. Form poor this year. No.

16 Beautiful Romance $81 (I)

Always skeptical of international mares (none have performed well that I can recall), and form barely average. No.

17 Almandin $11

Last two runs have been wins in local staying races. Question the class of those fields, and therefore the horse. The lightweight is responsible for his shortish odds. (Reluctant) No.

18 Assign $61

Similar form around Almandin, except was beaten convincingly by Almandin, hence the far juicier odds. No.

19 Grey Lion $51 (I)

Second in the Geelong Cup. It depends whether that’s a form reference this year. Other than the occasional hits – 2002 (Media Puzzle), 2010 (Americain) and 2011 (Dunaden) – it’s a hindrance more than a help. If you like the Geelong Cup, there’s two other horses drawing a bigger spotlight anyway. An international that will remain in Australia. (Only because it’s a grey) Maybe.

20 Oceanographer $8 (I)

Superb winner on Saturday to qualify for the Melbourne Cup after a close third in the Geelong Cup. That wasn’t the plan for this international visitor, so the big issue is whether he can run three big races in 13 days. Maybe.

21 Secret Number $31 (I)

The form looks superb with the last 5 starts being 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. The problem is that it’s over 3 years! He’s only run one other race this year, with the previous race being the second place on the Queens Cup at last year’s Spring Carnival in Melbourne. Very tricky to place. Need to go on trust the stable can produce him on the day and, if so, especially down in the weights, a strong chance. Yes.

22 Pentathlon $126

Class and form queries. The price says it all. No

23 Qewy $26 (I)

The Geelong Cup winner, so if you fancy Oceanographer, you must fancy this. Maybe.

24 Rose Of Virgina $101

Never heard of it until I saw the Melbourne Cup field. It’s really a $201 chance. There must be sympathy money on it. No.

Summary

Five horses marked Yes: Big Orange, Hartnell, Wicklow Brave, Jameka and Secret Number.

Five horses marked Maybe: Curren Mirotic, Bondi Beach, Grey Lion, Oceanographer and Qewy.

Hartnell is the clear favourite with the public at $5, with Oceanographer ($8) and Jameka ($8.50) next. Oceanographer is exaggerated because of that big win on Saturday. For value (and that possible distance doubt), I’ll prefer Jameka over Hartnell, and hope it’s a return to form for the Caulfield Cup as a form reference. Otherwise, I’m writing it off forever! Again for value and also Big Orange already had a go last year, I’ll prefer Wicklow Brave over Big Orange for my second bet. I’ll also take small pot shots at Secret Number and Grey Lion.

The five “Yes” horses will go into my 5-horse boxed trifecta, while I’ll exclude Secret Number for my boxed First 4.

Remember, it’s only gambling if you lose!

 

Review

Final Results

01 Almandin
02 Heartbreak City
03 Hartnell
04 Qewy
05 Who Shot Thebarman
06 Almoonqith
07 Beautiful Romance
08 Exopheric
09 Pentathlon
10 Big Orange
11 Grand Marshal
12 Oceanographer
13 Bondi Beach
14 Grey Lion
15 Jameka
16 Excess Knowledge
17 Our Ivanhowe
18 Sir John Hawkwood
19 Assign
20 Gallante
21 Wicklow Brave
22 Curren Mirotic
23 Secret Number
24 Rose Of Virginia

I ended up changing from Jameka to Hartnell. The odds improved and the doubts about Jameka grew larger. It didn’t matter ultimately, as Hartnell finished a well defeated third. It was a good race for him, with the 4kg difference in weights proving the decisive factor between him and the winner, Almandin. The race was exciting itself with Almandin and Heartbreak City duelling to the finish line.

To continue my poor run of predictions, I had both Almandin and Heartbreak City a “No”. The class was always the issue, which means it’s the second year in a row a low weight overcame a class deficiency. In some ways, it’s a return to the Melbourne Cup of old, where horses would try and beat the handicapper to get into the Cup with a light weight and peak on the day. Does that mean we should begin to revise our guidelines for picking winners? Maybe. If a horse has won decisively at its last start, then that’s form you can trust.

Some rules were reinforced, particularly previous runners. All ran to their past performance, if not worse. While Hartnell in third, Almoonqith in fourth and Who Shot Thebarman in fifth were good, Big Orange was poor in 10th and let’s not mention Bondi Beach, Grand Marshal, Excess Knowledge and Our Ivanhowe. Hartnell is probably the exception anyway in that he clearly improved in form since the last Cup. He was a super horse in comparison and was unlucky that two sneaks produced on the day.

Horses that haven’t run in Australia before, again, it’s wise to ignore them. While they’ve come close like Heartbreak City today and Red Cadeaux in 2011, they mostly fail: Bondi Beach, Beautiful Romance, Secret Number, Wicklow Brave and Curren Mirotic. Even if one wins one day, that will be a rare exception you cop. After all, these rules are more guidelines, and horses aren’t machines.

The Geelong Cup, again, was a poor reference. While Qewy was good in fourth, Grey Lion and Oceanographer failed. The latter also only had 3 days to recover from Saturday’s win, which is alien to European horses. Much like the situation with Almandin’s and Heartbreak City’s recent wins, winners in Geelong need to dominate it, or be highly credentialled horses.

Distance: Most of them don’t run it out. Arguably even Hartnell you could say didn’t quite stay. The likes of Jameka, especially, if you have doubts, leave them out.

Class: Reinforced again with the likes of Who Shot Thebarman, Pentathlon and Grand Marshal. While they can run 3200, they can’t run it fast enough. Also be wary of plodders, or horses without a sprint. For all Big Orange’s ability to run a solid 3200, it’s pointless if several horses sprint past him in the straight. Curiously, Big Orange’s jockey blamed the pace. Last year it was blamed for being too slow when finishing fifth. This year it seemed fast enough and they only managed tenth. Excuses. Maybe he’s not good enough.

The Caulfield Cup: Yep, time to write it off as any sort of form reference.

The Japanese: It might be time to write them off too. Since the 1-2 in 2006, they’ve been a disaster.

Other than Hartnell in third, my picks were a wipeout. Wicklow Brave ran wide all the way, with Frankie Dettori saying the horse felt “flat”. More likely Frankie “flattened” him. To think he and Heartbreak City were in the widest barriers together, yet the latter ended up beautifully just off the fence midfield, while the latter was running 10 wide out of the straight the first time. A debacle of a ride. My outsider of Secret Number proved that: a secret, and just a number. Took the lead around the home bend and folded. It really is the last time I get seduced by an international horse without a run in Australia first.

I’m not the only stooge either. Only one of Channel 7’s “experts” on the day picked Almandin to win. Bruce McAvaney picked Almandin on the Sunday preview show. Several of the panel on ABC’s Offsiders had Almandin second or third, with the combined tally being Hartnell, Jameka and Almandin. On Sky Racing only Glenn Munsie from TAB had Almandin to win, while Ron Dufficy had it third. The other three panelists ignored it. Racing.com was similar with only one of the six experts selecting it to win, with one for third. Across those four media outlets, only a handful slotted Heartbreak City for a place, while Hartnell was the overwhelming top pick for most. It means the horses are far more reliable than the experts.

A good Melbourne Cup overall. You like to see a good race, a relatively popular winner and a nice story. We got a bit of all of that. Almandin was around fifth most popular in the betting and paying $11.80, the race was close to the end, and who can knock Lloyd Williams winning his fifth Cup? He has put so much money into the industry for approximately 40 years, that he deserves it. Nice to see he was trackside too for a change. He must have known something, the wily old bugger.

Rio 2016 – Preview & Predictions

05 August 2016

Will Rio 2016 finally be the Olympics Australia doesn’t choke? Despite the hype generated from the swag of gold medals won since Sydney 2000, we have actually under-achieved as a nation, particularly in the pool. While we were highly critical of the 1 gold won at London 2012, in terms of predicted success, it was actually no worse than Beijing 2008.

logo01

Predictions in 2008 – notably from the American Sports Illustrated magazine – had Australia winning 12 gold medals in the pool as a minimum. If everything went right, it was 15, or even 17. While the rest of the world kept swimming personal bests in race after race, Australia kept producing flop after flop. Even worse was the jingoistic false pride from the team and the media at the minor medals won. Sorry, we, as a nation, are not proud of silver when we, as taxpayers, pump millions into a sports program and we, as sports fans, expect our athletes to perform to their abilities.

You can go back as far as Barcelona in 1992 for failures in the pool, often with the team returning half the gold medals they should have won. For all the fuss of Kieren Perkins winning the 1500m in Barcelona, he should have won the 400m too. Atlanta was similarly bereft of gold medals until two in the final days. Athens 2004, and especially Sydney 2000, are more illustrious failures. Whereas in 2012, Australia went in with only one or two gold medal favourites, and finished with one. Ironically, that was the surprise from the women’s’ 4×100 freestyle relay on the first night.

Let’s hope Rio is the salvation. Noted data analysts Gracenote are predicting, right now, 8 gold medals from the pool and 16 gold medals across all sports. A few months ago it was 18 gold medals. Our previous best was 17 in Athens. Sports Illustrated is suggesting 11 in the pool – an exaggeration this time – and 20 overall. The good news is those in the pool should be unbeatable if they produce near their personal bests. While one or two might be unlucky to be ambushed by a freak rival performance on the day, the key point is to produce the times. Too often the excuse of “it’s a racing meet” is offered for poor times, when really it should be no excuse. Swim your own race.

AUSTRALIA’S GOLD MEDAL CHANCES

Swimming

Minimum: 6
Optimum: 8
Maximum: 11

Women’s 50 freestyle, 100 freestyle, 100 backstroke, 200 backstroke and 4*100 freestyle, and men’s 100 freestyle, 100 and 200 backstroke are the key events.

Curiously, Cate Campbell broke the 100m world record only a few weeks ago. Let’s hope she hasn’t peaked. She’s miles in front of the world in that event, and favoured in the 50m, and so are the women in the 4x100f relay. Emily Seebohm and Mitch Larkin are world champions in the two backstroke events and, at the minimum, should win one of them. Cameron McEvoy in the men’s 100f is also the world champion and clearly the fastest in the world. There could be one or two surprises, like Mack Horton in the men’s 400f.

Basketball

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Can the women finally win gold? Only if someone else beats the USA along the way. That’s how Australia won its world championship several years ago, and then beat Russia for gold. The men can only hope for a minor medal.

Canoe/Kayak

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 1
Maximum: 2

Jessica Fox, silver in 2012, is a double world champion. Her slalom event can be tricky – one mistake and you are gone – so difficult to bank a certain gold here. On the flat water, the men occasionally snag a gold, and won gold in the k4*1000 in London.

Cycling

Minimum: 1
Optimum: 3
Maximum: 7

Plenty of chances with not too many guarantees. Anna Meares (sprint champion in 2012) is in three events and hopefully she wins one (the keirin the most likely). Annette Edmondson is a solid chance in the omnium, as are both women and men (especially women) in the team pursuit. BMX has multiple recent world champion Caroline Buchanan, while Sam Willoughby was one in the past. Finally, either race road could spring a surprise.

Diving

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Occasionally diving delivers a gold. Syncro events or women’s platform the best chances.

Equestrian

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Cross country and 3-day eventing are Australia’s best chances. It’s been quiet for a few Olympics so maybe it’s time for another gold.

Football

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

The men didn’t qualify; the women are on the rise. A gold would be a wonderful surprise, and an extra challenge after already losing their first match in Rio. A 2-0 loss to Canada means they must beat Germany in the next match. A draw means they’ll need to rely on other results, while a loss means they are out of the Olympics on the first official day of competition. Zimbabwe is the fourth team in the group and are expected to be easy beats for all teams after already losing 6-1 to Germany.

Golf

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Who cares? Ridiculous event to include. Men a chance.

Hockey

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 1
Maximum: 1

The men are a strong chance – as long as they don’t choke. Starting with the infamous failure in Montreal in 1976, for 40 years they’ve entered the Olympics as one of the favourites, if not the favourite, and returned 1 gold medal. The last two Olympics they fell apart in the semi finals after leading at half time. They could be the biggest chokers of any Australian team or individual in any sport, ever!

Rowing

Minimum: 1
Optimum: 2
Maximum: 3

Five minor medals four years ago means it’s time for gold. Kim Brennan (nee Crow) dominates women’s sculls, and the men are good chance in the fours and quad sculls.

Rugby Sevens

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 1
Maximum: 1

Women are world champions; men could surprise.

Sailing

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 1
Maximum: 3

The sport that saved our skin in London. The men’s 470s (Mathew Belcher & Will Ryan) and 49er (Nathan Outteridge & Iain Jensen) are reigning Olympic champions. Tom Burton in the Laser an outside chance. Sailing can be fickle so best not to bank too heavily here.

Shooting

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Another sport that occasionally produces a gold, usually in the trap events.

Tennis

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Another sport that should not be the Games. Only hopes are doubles and mixed doubles events.

Track and Field

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 2

Fabrice Lapierre in the long jump and Jared Tallent in the walking events the main chances. Tallent belatedly won gold from the 50km at London 2012 after the Russian winner was eventually disqualified for drug use.

Triathlon

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Either men or women a chance.

Water Polo

Minimum: 0
Optimum: 0
Maximum: 1

Women a chance.

Total

Minimum: 8
Optimum: 17
Maximum: 39

Remember, that maximum is everything in every event for every chance going right. This obviously will not happen. In fact, I’ve already allowed for this eventuality by not assigning two gold medals to team events like rugby and hockey. It would be highly unlikely both would win. If you cut the difference between optimum and maximum (22) in half (11), then the more realistic maximum is 28.

Personally I want the swimming team to excel. Ten gold in the pool and winning the medal tally would be perfect. Especially that the swimmers that are favoured to win – Campbell, Seebohm, McEvoy and Larkin – are decent, humble people. Speaking of decent and humble, Jessica Fox in the kayak slalom would be the most exciting gold of all to win. She’s won of the few people I follow on twitter. Anna Meares deserves another gold on the velodrome, while Annette Edmondson deserves her first.

OTHER NATIONS

Of course, the Olympics is not all about other Australia. Personally, I love to look elsewhere and absorb as much as I can. Other than the obvious of Usain Bolt to win the 100m and 200m for a third time, American swimmer Katie Ledecky will be the one to watch. She won 200m, 400m, 800m and 1500m at the world titles last year, and has demolished world records, particularly in the distance events. There’s no 1500m for women in the Olympics, and the 200m will be much tougher in an Olympic year. The 400m and 800m are still there, as other relay swims. She could finished with 4 gold medals.

The athlete for which I’ll have the most interest is Lithuania’s Ruta Meilutyte in the 100m breaststroke. She won in London as a 15 year old and it would be great to see her double up. The biggest threat would be Russia’s Yuliya Efimova, who beat her at the world championships last year. Incredibly, Efimova’s status is not 100% certain, with the IOC still to confirm her eligibility to compete in Rio. Efimova is contesting the grounds for the original doping offence (that she already served) so claims she should not be part of the IOC’s directive that Russia bans all athletes ever sanctioned for drug use.

RUSSIA

The right decision has been made that individuals never caught doping are allowed to compete. To ban an entire nation is ridiculous, and speaks more of the sanctimonious and reactionary approach by WADA, and the public as a whole. WADA is more concerned with its own power than individual athletes, sets ridiculous levels for athletes to prove innocence, and uses the Court of Arbitration for Sport to enforce its decisions. Realise that the CAS adjudicates on the jurisdiction of the appealing body (WADA, in this case). It’s not a true court where guilt must be proved, meaning that case involving WADA typically goes in favour of WADA.

You saw it first hand with the Essendon scandal in the AFL. Impossible to convict under the AFL’s jurisdiction of a stronger burden of proof, WADA steps in (because the AFL is a signatory) with its jurisdiction of almost non-existent proof, and the decision is reversed. There’s also Maria Sharapova’s case of ostensibly being allowed to take an illegal drug so WADA could eventually grandstand once she tests positive.

Even despite the narcissistic influence of WADA, it simply would have been wrong to ban individuals that never doped, and especially never had their samples fiddled by the Russian government. Think if it was Australia’s track and field athletes caught in systematic doping, and it was decided all the swimmers and cyclists should be banned with them. We’d be outraged, and rightfully so!

MORE INFORMATION & LINKS

Sports Illustrated says Australia to win 20 gold medals among 50 overall. Gold medals:

Cycling – Sprint – Matthew Glaetzer
Cycling – Keirin – Anna Meares
Cycling – BMX – Caroline Buchanan
Cycling – Men Team Pursuit
Hockey – Men
Rowing – Men Quad sculls
Rowing – Women Single sculls – Kim Brennan
Rowing – Women Quad sculls
Rugby – Women
Swimming – Men 100f – Cameron McEvoy
Swimming – Men 400f – Mack Horton
Swimming – Men 100b – Mitch Larkin
Swimming – Men 200b – Mitch Larkin
Swimming – Women 50f – Cate Campbell
Swimming – Women 100f – Cate Campbell
Swimming – Women 100b – Emily Seebohm
Swimming – Women 200b – Emily Seebohm
Swimming – Women 200bf – Madeline Groves
Swimming – Women 4x100f relay
Swimming – Women 4x100m relay

Interestingly they rank Jessica Fox in kayak slalom only for bronze and have totally ignored sailing and the women’s pursuit team in cycling. The women’s 200bf is the surprise inclusion for swimming. The women’s 4x100m relay seems optimistic to beat the USA for gold. Like I said earlier, there could be surprises, and SI’s 11 gold medals match my maximum.

http://www.si.com/olympics/2016/08/01/rio-2016-olympics-medal-picks-predictions-projected-medal-count

 

Gracenote are giving us Fox, a sailing gold and, surprisingly, a shooting gold, while dumping Seebohm in the 200br and three cycling gold medals.

Canoe Slalom – K1 J. Fox
Canoe Sprint M K4 1000m
Cycling – Track M Team Pursuit
Hockey M Team
Rowing W Single Sculls K. Brennan
Rugby Sevens W Team
Sailing M 470 M. Belcher/Ryan
Shooting M 50m Rifle Prone W. Potent
Swimming M 100m Freestyle C. McEvoy
Swimming M 400m Freestyle M. Horton
Swimming M 100m Backstroke M. Larkin
Swimming M 200m Backstroke M. Larkin
Swimming W 50m Freestyle C. Campbell
Swimming W 100m Freestyle C. Campbell
Swimming W 100m Backstroke E. Seebohm
Swimming W 4 x 100m Freestyle Relay

http://sportsdemo1.gracenote.com/documentation/vmt#demo

The Australian Olympic Committee is predicting 13 gold medals among 37 medals overall. They’ve added two women’s cycling gold and stuck to the big chances elsewhere.

GOLD: Anna Meares (Cycling, Keirin), Annette Edmondson (Cycling, Omnuim), Women’s Team Pursuit (Cycling), Men’s hockey team, Kim Crow (Rowing, women’s single sculls), Mathew Belcher and Ryan Will (Sailing, 470), Mitch Larkin (Swimming, 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke), Cate Campbell (Swimming 50m freestyle, 100m freestyle), Emily Seebohm (Swimming 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke), women’s 4x100m freestyle relay (Swimming).

SILVER: Fabrice Lapierre (Athletic, long jump), Jared Tallent (Athletics, 50km walk), Kenith Wallace and Lachlan Tame (Canoe/Kayak, K2 1000m), Caroline Buchanan (Cycling, women’s BMX), Michael Mathews (Cycling, road race), Glenn O’Shea (Cycling, Omnium), men’s fours (rowing), men’s quadruple sculls (rowing), women’s rugby sevens team, Jason Waterhouse and Lisa Darmanin (Sailing, Nacra 17), Nathan Outteridge and Iain Jensen (Sailing, 49er), men’s 4×100 medley relay (Swimming), Cameron McEvoy (Swimming, 100m freestyle), Madison Wilson (Swimming, 100m backstroke), Casey Dellacqua (Tennis, women’s doubles), John Peers (Tennis, Men’s doubles).

BRONZE: Women’s basketball team, Anna Meares and Kaarle McCulloch (Cycling, team sprint), men’s team pursuit (Cycling), Samantha Mills and Esther Qin (Diving, 3m synchronised springboard), Tom Burton (Sailing, laser), women’s 4x100m medley relay (Swimming), men’s 4x200m freestyle relay (Swimming), Cate Campbell (Swimming, 100m freestyle), Jessica Ashwood (Swimming, 400m freestyle)

Melbourne Cup 2015 Preview

2 November 2015

For apparently such a tough Melbourne Cup this year, it’s ironic that it will have one of the shortest priced favourites in recent years. Based on ratings, form, weight and conditions, Fame Game from Japan simply wins. The Japanese stayers are the best in the world, and Fame Game’s last race over 3200 was a close second to the phenomenal Gold Ship in the Tenno Sho. That was two starts back in May. The start before that was a win over 3400 metres.

Just as obvious in second place is Ireland’s Trip To Paris. Normally he’d be a disqualification by being an Ascot Gold Cup winner over 4000 metres. Typically these horses are plodders, lacking the required acceleration to win a Melbourne Cup. That was until his second in the Caulfield Cup, in which his closing sectionals were the fastest of the race. Fame Game was second fastest, which might have been fastest if not for being blocked for runs.

Either way, both Fame Game and Trip To Paris possess the other key criteria for international runners: a previous start in Australia. Both have settled in. Other than Vintage Crop in 1993, who was helped by a bog track and a rubbish field, no international has won the Cup without a lead-up run. Several have come second, including Red Cadeaux 3 times, so at best treat them as place chances.

Another irony this year is that the Caulfield Cup is the form race. Even though pundits keep saying it is, recent years it has been poor. The last CC placing to win a Melbourne Cup was Delta Blues in 2006, and the last CC runner at all to win a MC was the outsider Viewed in 2008. Because the Melbourne Cup has become so tough for lower tier locals to enter, the Caulfield Cup has become their target. Top tier locals prefer to avoid it so to avoid a penalty if winning it, while most internationals that use it are more interested in it as a preparation run, not as a target to win.

In compiling my picks, I generally try to eliminate those that either can’t or are unlikely to win. I use criteria of record over the distance, form, class and, for internationals, previous start in Australia. With the full internationalisation of the race, running the distance has become critical. Weight is not so much an issue these days given the compressed scale. It only matters now right at the bottom, that any lightweights with lower credentials will be helped, particularly if in spectacular form. Mares have a poor record overall in the race, so am generally wary of them unless they are big, strong types or are known to handle big fields. Horses that have run and failed in previous Cups are also ignored. There’s none in that category this year.

01) Snow Sky 58kg (GB)

Without Fame Game or Trip To Paris in the race, Snow Sky would be one of the favourites. He’s giving FG 1kg and TTP 3kg, both performed as good or better in the Caulfield Cup, so mathematically, he doesn’t add up. Consequently all the betting money has bypassed him for FG and TTP. He’s worth a place bet or small one for the win at the juicy odds on offer (currently $41). You just never know. He also must break the hoodoo of no British horse winning the Cup yet.

02) Criterion 57.5 (AUS)

Twenty years ago, maybe even 15 years ago, you’d be all over Criterion. He’s the class local in the race, which was often enough to win the Melbourne Cup in an era that was not the true staying test that it is now. While he’s won a derby at 2400m, he’s never tried 3200, so he’s a distance doubt. If the Cup is not too fast, he’s in it. Otherwise I expect him to run out of steam the last two hundred metres. He shapes like So You Think in 2010, which finished third.

03) Fame Game 57 (JPN)

Another reason to accept the Caulfield Cup form this year is that FG used it as a training run. It’s almost irrelevant whether it’s a strong form race. All it tells us is that FG has settled in Australia. He’s reminiscent of last year’s winner Protectionist, which ran on nicely in a lead-up race before blitzing the Cup.

04) Our Ivanhowe 56 (AUS/IMP)

International horse now trained in Australia. Third in the Caulfield Cup. He looked like the winner and then ran out of steam. Does he run the distance? His history suggests not.

05) Big Orange 55.5 (GB)

Great name! He hasn’t run here, so must risk him. He has won over the distance, so that’s a plus if you like the name.

06) Hartnell 55.5 (AUS/IMP)

Locally trained import. Distance and form doubt.

07) Hokko Brave 55.5 (JPN)

Fame Game has his measure both here and in Japan. He also hasn’t won a race in two years.

08) Max Dynamite 55 (FRA)

Another great name! Now racing in Ireland, he’s an interesting runner, being primarily a hurdler. He destroyed Trip To Paris in his previous run. That was on a bog track so there are explanations both ways. Flemington will be a good track, and with his profile as a plodding hurdler, at best he’s running on late.

09) Red Cadeaux 55 (GB)

Three times second here, including the past two years. His first run, in 2011, he was beaten by a nostril flap. Since then the distances of defeat have increased as has his age (now a European 9 year old). This year it’s a stronger field too.

10) Trip To Paris 55 (IRE)

If Fame Game fails, TTP wins. There’s nothing really between these two other than FG’s world rating is higher and he’s Japanese. Not that I’m racially stereotyping! TTP is the stablemate of Red Cadeaux, so you know the trainer can produce.

11) Who Shot Thebarman 54.5 (AUS)

Third last year and going about as well this year. It’s a stronger field, and he just failed to win in autumn’s Sydney Cup – a race of much lower standard.

12) Sky Hunter 54 (GB)

Godolphin have been trying to win for two decades. We haven’t seen him run in Australia, so can’t have him. Also doubts about the grade of races he’s been winning, and he’s a distance doubt.

13) The Offer 54 (AUS/IMP)

Would need it to bucket down, and that would be buckets of concrete dropping on the other horses. No hope.

14) Grand Marshal 53.5 (AUS/IMP)

Just beat Who Shot Thebarman in that Sydney Cup, and they ran similarly in the Caulfield Cup.

15) Preferment 53.5 (AUS)

Probably the best local hope with a delicious weight and good form. Won the VRC Derby (2500m) last spring, so would emulate Efficient (2007) and Phar Lap (1930) in completing the double. The only doubt is the distance. He’s never been tried, so go on hope and also the trainer.

16) Quest For More 53.5 (IRE)

Flopped in lead-up run in Australia. Goodbye.

17) Almoonqith 53 (AUS/IMP)

Won Geelong Cup. It’s been a good form race for good horses. Recent years they’ve avoided it, preferring to enter Australia pre-qualified and use other races for preparation. Huge doubts on the quality of the field he beat, so therefore on him.

18) Kingfisher 53 (IRE)

Apparently got travel sickness. With poor recent form at home and no lead-up run in Australia, goodbye.

19) Prince Of Penzance 53 (AUS)

No hope.

20) Bondi Beach 52.5 (IRE)

So inexperienced with just 5 career runs. Must be huge doubts he can handle the occasion; hasn’t had a lead-up run either. He was apparently bought more as 2016 Cup horse.

21) Sertorius 52.5 (AUS)

No hope.

22) The United States 52.5 (AUS/IMP)

Ran well to win the Moonee Valley Cup. It’s been a dud form reference since 1990, so doubts on class. At best, a lightweight place chance.

23) Excess Knowledge 51 (AUS)

Lexus Cup winner on Saturday. Horses need to be really good, and win dominantly, to double-up and win the Melbourne Cup. The last was Shocking in 2009. EK is no Shocking and only just won to qualify.

24) Gust Of Wind 51 (AUS)

A mare that ran on ok in the Caulfield Cup to finish fourth. An Oaks winner, so might run the distance. Most likely she won’t.


Summary

The only decision is Fame Game or Trip To Paris. FG is ridiculously short on fixed odds at $3 compared to $9 for TTP. On floating TAB odds tomorrow, he should be a bit better value with TTP a bit worse. Maybe you risk FG, split your bet or do a big quinella (FG and TTP first and second in any order). Into third I’m thinking either Preferment or Criterion so will box them with FG and TTP into a trifecta and a first-four. Others with a chance to run really well include Snow Sky, Big Orange, Max Dynamite, Red Cadeaux and The United States so will add them as the third placed horse in an exotic trifecta with FG and TPP as first or second.

Remember: It’s only gambling if you lose!

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